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The Bitcoin Group · Predictions

Predictions, verified.

Every call below is a real, quote-backed prediction from the show, scored against the actual Bitcoin price. Small sample, honest numbers — no auto-counted sentiment.

Leaderboard

Resolved verified calls only (hit or miss). Sample sizes are small — read them as such.
PanelistAccuracyHits / Resolved
Andreas Antonopoulos100%1/1
Blake Anderson100%1/1
Jimmy Song100%1/1
Josh Scigala71%5/7
Martin Wismeijer67%2/3
Thomas Hunt63%17/27
Dan Eve50%1/2
Adam McBride50%1/2
Ben Arc50%1/2
Victoria Jones40%2/5
Will Pangman0%0/1
Tone Vays0%0/1
Vlad Costea0%0/1

Overall: 32/54 resolved verified calls landed (59%). 80 total verified calls tracked; the rest are still inconclusive or awaiting resolution.

The weekly Magic 8-Ball

The host's recurring weekly price call — the show's own long-running scorecard.
49.4%   88 correct · 90 wrong · 178 calls

Every verified call — the proof

Chronological. Each with the quote, the episode, and the price move it was scored against.
Andreas Antonopoulos · predicted downhit
“But I mean, I'm not concerned about this, I think the merchant adoption is strong and that a little bit of a dip in the price means that it's not a bubble that people are spending Bitcoin at the merchant adoption increases in its ability to interface with liquidity of Bitcoin.”
2014-08-15 · TBG #43
BTC $522$498 (-4.7%) over 7d
Blake Anderson · predicted uphit
“My prediction is that long term of course Bitcoin is going to go up the merchant adoption exploding right now is good.”
2014-08-15 · TBG #43
BTC $522$10,309 (+1874.8%) over 1825d
Blake Anderson · predicted upinconclusive
“Tim Draper noted venture capitalist disagrees with the current market he says he sees an entire economy being rebuilt he has a price target of $10,000 in three years and he says even that may be pessimistic is there no reason to fear is this really the mother of all buying opportunities Blake Anderson.”
2014-09-20 · TBG #48
BTC $402$379 (-5.6%) over 7d
Blake Anderson · predicted downinconclusive
“It's it's very irresponsible So please don't be that person Price weird Still okay, bye Here's my prediction my prediction is nautilus coin will be released soon with roovo steg not just gonna Um, I had to say that at least once otherwise someone was gonna shoot me Uh story of the week You know this this Bitcoin price ”
2014-09-20 · TBG #48
BTC $402$379 (-5.6%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downinconclusive
“Man I'm terrible at this prediction things well it's already being used by people in this face which I think is really good and I think it's just going to grow from there and really spread out you know I it's hard to put an exact number on it it really is things seem to move so fast in Bitcoin and then you kind of step”
2014-10-10 · TBG #51
BTC $361$391 (+8.2%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“Even during what, sadly, I think we can now all agree, it was a Bitcoin bubble in the price.”
2014-12-06 · TBG #59
BTC $376$349 (-7.2%) over 7d
Blake Anderson · predicted downinconclusive
“If the popularity of segregated witness wanes, then I think that people's confidence in the long-term scalability of Bitcoin will go down.”
2016-01-16 · TBG #84
BTC $382$402 (+5.1%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“I think after the havining, the price will drop a little bit.”
2016-04-22 · TBG #92
BTC $450$449 (-0.3%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upmiss
“I think the price will go up.”
2017-02-04 · TBG #127
BTC $1,016$997 (-1.9%) over 7d
Tone Vays · predicted downmiss
“I don't think Bitcoin is in a bubble at all.”
2017-08-04 · TBG #153
BTC $3,263$3,872 (+18.7%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upinconclusive
“So if everyone in the world could access Bitcoin, even in Africa or the back, out back of Australia, even in random places in Russia, I believe that Blockstream's theory would be the value of Bitcoin will go up.”
2017-08-18 · TBG #155
BTC $4,150$4,352 (+4.9%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“In my opinion, I think we're just kind of coming into a maybe a short-term bubble, Cliff High, who does linguistic analysis on internet traffic has specifically indicated that his data a short-term high of 6888, or the D is claiming his data shows a 6888 price and then a massive drop, something around 40-ish percent, w”
2017-09-01 · TBG #157
BTC $4,574$4,335 (-5.2%) over 7d
Jimmy Song · predicted uphit
“And this is why I think price will go up because when developers contribute to the ecosystem, that makes the entire ecosystem stronger and more immune to other, uh, similar things that happen in the future.”
2017-10-27 · TBG #162
BTC $5,727$7,364 (+28.6%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downmiss
“And in terms of the price I think I think the initial reaction to that would be a pullback on the price and I think it would pop if we are in a short term bubble I think it would pop that bubble.”
2017-12-09 · TBG #167
BTC $15,060$19,066 (+26.6%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downmiss
“In notorious Bitcoin bull, Tom Lee from Fundstrat, argued recently that the futures markets deployed by CBOE have suppressed price growth, while others say that Bitcoin is simply in a bear market.”
2018-06-29 · TBG #182
BTC $6,385$6,758 (+5.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downmiss
“And I think that's one of the reasons why, even though we've been in a price bear market, the hash rate has been surging crazily.”
2018-08-17 · TBG #185
BTC $6,406$6,750 (+5.4%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upinconclusive
“But no, if you're willing to do that, then I think Bitcoin is going to go up.”
2019-03-15 · TBG #195
BTC $4,027$4,007 (-0.5%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upinconclusive
“Yes, I think Bitcoin price is going to go up but the very fact that oil is being so volatile is probably something worth taking seriously and being a bit scared about.”
2020-04-24 · TBG #220
BTC $7,547$8,981 (+19.0%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upmiss
“I predict that I predict that I've predicted the Bitcoin will go up.”
2020-05-29 · TBG #223
BTC $9,700$9,671 (-0.3%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“I think it could really push the price of Bitcoin over $1,000 a coin.”
2020-10-23 · TBG #232
BTC $13,126$13,803 (+5.2%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“The price of Bitcoin just keeps going up, setting a new all-time high on Christmas Day with a brand new $24,600 price point.”
2020-12-25 · TBG #241
BTC $26,446$32,204 (+21.8%) over 7d
Martin Wismeijer · predicted uphit
“Bitcoin is also like, you know, the first world's, certainly the first number go up technology.”
2020-12-25 · TBG #241
BTC $26,446$32,204 (+21.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“This news may have lifted the price above $60,000 or it could be the usual trading stats of Bitcoin.”
2021-04-02 · TBG #252
BTC $57,075$59,785 (+4.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downmiss
“But yeah, I think, you know, I did see today on the RTL network, the news network, business news network here in the satellite, that there was somebody really, really negative about Bitcoin and crypto being a bubble and now a platform for trading in bubbles is going live on nest deck and it will fail and it should not ”
2021-04-02 · TBG #252
BTC $57,075$59,785 (+4.8%) over 7d
Dan Eve · predicted upmiss
“He decided to laugh at him because Bitcoin is going to hit 250 and then it's going to go to crazy, crazy money that we never thought.”
2021-04-16 · TBG #254
BTC $60,056$50,116 (-16.6%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upinconclusive
“We know Bitcoin is like number go up technology.”
2021-08-13 · TBG #271
BTC $47,102
Martin Wismeijer · predicted uphit
“Then the price will go up.”
2021-08-28 · TBG #273
BTC $48,794$51,784 (+6.1%) over 7d
Will Pangman · predicted downmiss
“They're pushing people outside of the US but it's not just through bitcoin the US empire has been pushing people out for decades it's certainly with the collapse that every in the housing bubble recently people losing their houses seeing opportunities elsewhere the growth in Asia it's forcing people out will.”
2021-10-11 · TBG #6
BTC $56,011$64,284 (+14.8%) over 7d
Will Pangman · predicted upinconclusive
“They're going to fix this implementation problem and they're probably going to bounce back sometime next week and the price is going to go up again.”
2021-12-27 · TBG #17
BTC $47,536$45,825 (-3.6%) over 7d
Adam McBride · predicted downhit
“He's like, the price of Bitcoin will go down.”
2021-12-31 · TBG #289
BTC $47,737$41,687 (-12.7%) over 7d
Adam McBride · predicted upmiss
“Then the price of Bitcoin will go up.”
2021-12-31 · TBG #289
BTC $47,737$41,687 (-12.7%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“I think even after the company goes through the bottom of the red line, I think that it will continue to get coverage in the news for a while because there are certain media outlets that just love piling on top of the Bitcoin as a bubble.”
2022-01-03 · TBG #18
BTC $45,825$42,743 (-6.7%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upinconclusive
“I'll say it's difficult it depends a bit on on the war I think at the moment it's but I do think that people it will take some time but eventually price will go up you know it's difficult I will trust the eight ball on this is better than any analyst I've seen on the internet so far.”
2022-03-11 · TBG #299
BTC $38,806$42,235 (+8.8%) over 7d
Ben Arc · predicted downmiss
“And I won because there's no new nuclear war yet so I will say that the price will go down next week because then it will go up so everyone put your lungs in.”
2022-03-11 · TBG #299
BTC $38,806$42,235 (+8.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“So I think the price is the price is going to go up, but for now, it's still, we're only two weeks in into this conflict, quite amazingly.”
2022-03-11 · TBG #299
BTC $38,806$42,235 (+8.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“I have to just send me one maybe two then I'll have one to sell dan eave a prediction tell us about the future Uh Okay, so I think last I can't remember what I did last week But I think I went to no nuclear war and I think I was correct so nice and easy one and I'm gonna go for a prediction Next week that there will al”
2022-03-18 · TBG #300
BTC $42,235$44,542 (+5.5%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted downinconclusive
“Yeah I mean look I've got a video on from me in 2011 on YouTube going Bitcoin is not a tulip bubble or something like that right.”
2022-04-15 · TBG #303
BTC $40,393$39,446 (-2.3%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downinconclusive
“I mean, that's not a bubble, that's a new asset class, and I think many of the Bitcoiners, they add real hotlers here, they're not in it for a quick gain.”
2022-04-22 · TBG #304
BTC $39,446$37,650 (-4.5%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“And then I hope the price will go down, and I'll buy it back, pay Thomas back, and hey, press the I'll keep the difference.”
2022-06-24 · TBG #313
BTC $21,474$19,226 (-10.5%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downinconclusive
“The fact is that if you have a pension, you're putting your money or 401k as they say in the United States, if you've got, you know, you're putting your money in Bitcoin, if you're going to have a bit of downturn, I think initially, because we do seem to think the price is going to go down a bit, but ultimately, long t”
2022-07-01 · TBG #314
BTC $19,226
Josh Scigala · predicted downinconclusive
“I think it's more just kind of general trimming down they can see a bit of a multi-year bear market or you know a winter coming in but at the same time they're just trying to tighten the reins make sure that they're they remain profitable and yeah as much as people want to see them for you know at the end of the day yo”
2022-07-22 · TBG #316
BTC $22,452$23,646 (+5.3%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted downmiss
“Yeah Laura we're in a weren't stressful bear market times when people when it puts it on perspective and you're like I just want to spend time with my family I'm so stressed out it's Bitcoin thing and then most people they just go back to work and they just keep that little Bitcoin stash but someone I might call sailor”
2022-08-05 · TBG #318
BTC $22,956$24,450 (+6.5%) over 7d
Martin Wismeijer · predicted upmiss
“Bitcoin will go up again.”
2022-08-19 · TBG #320
BTC $21,142$20,038 (-5.2%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“I think the cashback idea to get some crypto Bitcoin back on your purchases is insanely great because just those cashback people alone will prevent another bear market.”
2022-09-09 · TBG #323
BTC $21,655$20,118 (-7.1%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted uphit
“Means that we can adjust accordingly and assume that the price of Bitcoin will go up.”
2022-09-23 · TBG #325
BTC $18,924$19,314 (+2.1%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“And I think the price is going to go up.”
2022-10-21 · TBG #329
BTC $19,208$20,820 (+8.4%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“And I think, you know, Bitcoin is the price will go lower while they keep playing those games, unfortunately.”
2022-11-11 · TBG #332
BTC $16,774$16,684 (-0.5%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downhit
“Well I mentioned the latest newsletter I was producing on my web page last week that's now out basically I'm commenting on what I think of the macro economic environment and how I think that the Bitcoin bear market still has further to go not great news but I think it's better to be forward is for armed so anyone's int”
2022-11-18 · TBG #333
BTC $16,684$16,452 (-1.4%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downmiss
“But I don't think we have some more consolidation to go I think it's going to be a it looks like a rough bear market but i see I think it's still I still see a lot of building and Bitcoin still works and i'm quite content with it.”
2022-12-02 · TBG #335
BTC $16,888$17,129 (+1.4%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downmiss
“Well, a year and a half is still a long time in considering that we're an all-time high year ago and everyone's bemoaning the fate of the Bitcoin bear market.”
2022-12-30 · TBG #339
BTC $16,531$16,943 (+2.5%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“Yes, they say that Bitcoin could go up or down in 2023.”
2023-01-06 · TBG #340
BTC $16,943$20,955 (+23.7%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted downhit
“Well, look, in the beginning of Bitcoin, you know, 2010 to 2011 to 2012, when the community started getting bigger and bigger, the hot, the every talking point was Bitcoin's a chulet bubble and just kept on talking about it.”
2023-03-03 · TBG #348
BTC $22,353$20,614 (-7.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“Morgan's analysts say this could cause the price of Bitcoin to rise all the way to $45,000, almost erasing the previous bear market.”
2023-05-27 · TBG #360
BTC $28,078$27,125 (-3.4%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted upinconclusive
“If there was a limited supply, they were shorter to Bitcoin on the market, but I think that's nonsense is supply and demand, the basic rules of supply and demand, of course, the price is going to go up.”
2023-07-01 · TBG #365
BTC $30,618$30,171 (-1.5%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted downinconclusive
“Bitcoin bubble right he's saying this is how much wealth we can store in Bitcoin and every time someone does this from the traditional world.”
2023-07-01 · TBG #365
BTC $30,618
Josh Scigala · predicted downhit
“It does look really bad when a casino goes out of business it's a real Taj Mahal situation Josh Jagala who's better or worse for Bitcoin Michael sailor with his ability to sell everything all at one time to buy the New York Yankees or CZ who's running exchange that's safe who but only exists on his laptop with no home ”
2023-07-01 · TBG #365
BTC $30,618$30,171 (-1.5%) over 7d
Ben Arc · predicted downhit
“Ben Arck is the bear market over, and more importantly do Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto currencies not have to worry about being called securities anymore.”
2023-07-17 · TBG #367
BTC $29,864$29,227 (-2.1%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upinconclusive
“Then the fundamental value of crypto or that the price will go up, which I think was a very person and comment.”
2023-08-11 · TBG #370
BTC $29,417$26,096 (-11.3%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downinconclusive
“So I thought that was great story of the week well I've been in France for two weeks so there's not been much related going on with me but on my website before I left my updated the latest newsletter which is about Bitcoin and what's it called the kind of remember the name when newsletter yes it's about the the self-sa”
2023-09-01 · TBG #373
BTC $25,869$25,898 (+0.1%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downinconclusive
“I was a banking began with Bank of England I've then gone on to talk about how that introduction then led to share trading and the scandal that was a salsy bubble so I found that quite interesting to write and I'm sure a few people will find that interesting to read so yeah if you go to my website site citatos page.com”
2023-09-01 · TBG #373
BTC $25,869$25,898 (+0.1%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downinconclusive
“Very cool Victoria sounds like a great article always fun to read about the salsy bubble and especially the horrible troubles that Isaac Newton had I can always remember the chart it's a popular internet meme in my Bitcoin adult mind but it's something like Newton invests the price goes out.”
2023-09-01 · TBG #373
BTC $25,869$25,898 (+0.1%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downmiss
“A bubble so it's quite interesting historical event but we're also the also yeah I mean especially when you relate it's Bitcoin and all the discussions because of course the tulip bubble happened before the salsy bubble but again the history connected with that is very interesting it's worth people who interested in Bi”
2023-09-01 · TBG #373
BTC $25,869$25,898 (+0.1%) over 7d
Dan Eve · predicted uphit
“So theoretically the price of Bitcoin should go up.”
2023-10-28 · TBG #380
BTC $34,535$35,039 (+1.5%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted uphit
“Well yeah I mean like who wouldn't like to see a million dollar Bitcoin plus but yeah those predictions they run on the mill now right you know we've and and that's they're all nothing compared to the one that Ben informed us of which was like the 666 billion I can't remember it had so many so many numbers in it you kn”
2024-02-03 · TBG #394
BTC $42,570$48,311 (+13.5%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted upinconclusive
“It's a no brainer it's a no brainer unfortunately though many of us earlier bitcoins big one is we we have to sell because we've got things to do we got you know rent to pay and electricity pay and stuff so it's not always a panacea but yeah it's it's definitely number go down which makes number go up technology.”
2024-04-27 · TBG #405
BTC $63,111$64,038 (+1.5%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downhit
“Well, I mean, the hypocrisy of it is what gets me because I remember very clearly the Trump campaign taking credit for crashing the Bitcoin bubble in 2017.”
2024-05-25 · TBG #409
BTC $68,488$67,739 (-1.1%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted downhit
“And the price will go down and you'll give up or something like that, some kind of white salon or black swan event will happen.”
2024-06-15 · TBG #412
BTC $66,632$63,181 (-5.2%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downinconclusive
“But yeah, I think, I mean to be honest, if you pick a month and you say that's the month when Bitcoin goes up, there's going to be a whole bunch of traders who are going to buy Bitcoin, things are going to go up and then they're going to dump on the month where it goes down.”
2024-10-12 · TBG #426
BTC $62,854$69,021 (+9.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted uphit
“No, no, no, I just think I think that we're going to see 100 K Bitcoin very, very soon.”
2024-11-16 · TBG #431
BTC $89,877$98,018 (+9.1%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downhit
“Bitcoin will go down and I think he was stack his family at least someone in his family was stacking sets in that moment.”
2024-11-23 · TBG #432
BTC $98,018$97,276 (-0.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upinconclusive
“Then I think that might give the market a little more faith in his decision making and then things like Bitcoin will go up.”
2025-03-15 · TBG #446
BTC $82,572$86,092 (+4.3%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downmiss
“I think there's going to be more blood in the streets with the price and we're probably in a nice bear market, which are quite like a bear market.”
2025-04-19 · TBG #451
BTC $85,167$93,777 (+10.1%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downinconclusive
“Well also ironic is that kind of statement isn't actually all that unique I mean I've got again a newsletter on my website called Bitcoin and the South Sea Bubble and one of the things I talk about is exactly you know how that came into being and of course it was right at the beginning of the invention of financial mar”
2025-05-10 · TBG #454
BTC $104,124$106,489 (+2.3%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted downinconclusive
“And like you say, Ben, they'll be the one standing around they've they've already said Michael Saylor just said we could go there will never be another Bitcoin bear market, which is a horrible thing to say if you don't want there to be another bear market.”
2025-06-14 · TBG #459
BTC $105,625$101,015 (-4.4%) over 7d
Ben Arc · predicted upinconclusive
“We're going to issue three Texas ready for 10 million dollar Bitcoin purchase after governor signs bill for state reserve Texas is getting a Bitcoin reserve and they're going to contribute actively investing millions of dollars of the people's money into an unspendable Bitcoin reserve that can never be spent because it”
2025-06-28 · TBG #461
BTC $108,392$109,234 (+0.8%) over 7d
Victoria Jones · predicted downmiss
“And then we did, we did back to 1.5 or 500K, which by then will be called a crash Bitcoin will crash to 500K.”
2025-07-19 · TBG #462
BTC $117,329$119,469 (+1.8%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted upmiss
“And so this latest generation, I think, is going to have such a privilege of knowing about the downsides of fear, especially because of all the good work that people have done in the early days of spreading that knowledge and getting people involved in Bitcoin and not just understanding that it's some sort of money go ”
2025-09-13 · TBG #467
BTC $115,352$115,300 (-0.1%) over 7d
Thomas Hunt · predicted downmiss
“Well, I do think Dan that we've reached, I think it might have been CZ even who tweeted at one point Bitcoin will crash to 100 K and you'll be crying.”
2025-10-18 · TBG #472
BTC $108,702$114,560 (+5.4%) over 7d
Josh Scigala · predicted upmiss
“Well, you can either say Bitcoin will go up or the global currencies go down in value and both the sure things because one happens when the other happens.”
2025-12-20 · TBG #475
BTC $88,648$87,887 (-0.9%) over 7d
Vlad Costea · predicted downmiss
“Well, not with it, my bubble, but I do understand that a large part of Latin America and the Middle East and pretty much a lot of the places that actually need Bitcoin are turning to stable coins and using them for daily transactions.”
2025-12-27 · TBG #476
BTC $87,887$91,500 (+4.1%) over 7d
METHOD — Built only from verified-predictions.json: 80 predictions that were manually/verifiably attributed, each tied to a quote, an episode, the BTC price at the time, and the resolved price. A call is a "hit" if the price moved in the predicted direction over its stated horizon, a "miss" if it moved against, and "inconclusive" where the horizon or target was too vague to score. Deliberately excludes the auto-extracted directional-sentiment counts (which conflated every "going up/down" phrase with a real prediction and produced inflated, unverifiable totals).