TBG-167

Bitcoin Futures, The Price, Bitcoin Outlawed & Coinbase Down

December 09, 2017 · YouTube · All episodes
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Where the panel landed

Would Bitcoin futures, mainstream price mania, and Coinbase outages bring institutional legitimacy to Bitcoin, or expose the old financial and exchange infrastructure as unready for it?

The panel agreed that futures would open Bitcoin to new institutional flows, but split on prediction confidence. Kyle Torpey was cautious, emphasizing that both new shorts and new buyers could arrive through regulated products, while Jeffrey Jones was far more bullish and argued that shorting Bitcoin against strong holder demand would be dangerous. On Coinbase, Jeffrey and Thomas were sharply critical of its outages, SegWit delay, and earlier support for 2X, while Kyle noted that many exchanges and wallet services struggled during the same extreme demand spike.

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The panel saw futures, institutional interest, and rising public demand as validating Bitcoin, even while warning that governments, exchanges, and old financial rails were not prepared for the scale of the move.

What they were watching

Bitcoin was discussed after a violent move toward 19,000 on GDAX, followed by a fall into the 14,000 range and a partial recovery near 15,000 during the show. Jeffrey refused to call a top and argued that demand, scarcity, and the digital-gold thesis still pointed higher, while Kyle also called higher for the following week but warned that a Western government crackdown could eventually pop a short-term bubble. The directional consensus remained higher, though the panel repeatedly noted that the move had stressed every centralized service around Bitcoin.

CME futures get a date

The show opened with CME’s December 18 futures launch and NASDAQ appearing more cautious. Kyle framed the question as a tug-of-war between new regulated shorts and new institutional buyers, while Jeffrey argued that pent-up demand for Bitcoin exposure was too large to dismiss.

Legacy markets meet 24/7 Bitcoin

The panel questioned how futures markets with trading hours, shutdowns, and limits would handle an asset that trades globally at all times. Thomas warned that ordinary Bitcoin traders already have 24/7 access, which could make legacy futures look slow and exposed during major night or weekend moves.

Futures before ETFs

The exit question compared futures with a Bitcoin ETF. Kyle preferred direct futures if ETFs were merely derivatives of futures, while Jeffrey argued that futures were part of the path toward ETFs and broader institutional products.

Bitcoin breaks toward 19,000

Bitcoin’s price spike, crash, and rebound dominated the second issue. Jeffrey said the move reflected massive demand and digital-gold adoption, while Kyle connected the post-2X market to the success of the censorship-resistant store-of-value thesis.

Centralized infrastructure fails

Coinbase, GDAX, Gemini, Kraken, and wallet APIs all struggled during the rally. Thomas and Jeffrey argued that the Bitcoin network itself was still processing transactions, while the centralized fiat bridges and exchange services failed under demand.

Government ban risk

Kyle warned that a Western government crackdown could be closer than some expected, especially if politicians connected Bitcoin to North Korea, dark markets, opioids, or monetary control. Jeffrey countered that U.S. agencies had already created enough regulatory categories to engage with Bitcoin, and that Wall Street’s growing interest would produce its own political defense.

Economists miss Bitcoin

Joseph Stiglitz’s call to outlaw Bitcoin led to a broader discussion of why older economists and financial authorities fail to understand it. Kyle argued that Bitcoin directly contradicts their career assumptions about state-managed money, while Jeffrey framed crypto economics as the first real-world laboratory for theories that old economics treated abstractly.

Coinbase faces disruption

The final issue focused on Coinbase outages and its failure to provide a clear SegWit roadmap. Jeffrey called Coinbase a temporary bridge to fiat, Thomas criticized its communication and product choices, and Kyle said Square, Revolut, Circle, and decentralized exchanges could pressure Coinbase by offering simpler ways to buy and sell Bitcoin.

It's either going to be these new shorts coming in for the first time or these new buyers that want access to the Bitcoin price— Kyle Torpey
There is there is nowhere for this asset to go, but absolutely to the moon.— Jeffrey Jones
They're not going to want to use a traditional Bitcoin exchange maybe so they're just waiting for more regulated market— Kyle Torpey
Bitcoin is much more ready than people think.— Jeffrey Jones
The entire point of Bitcoin is to get around that— Kyle Torpey
The traditional financial system died in 2009— Jeffrey Jones

Story of the Week

Bitcoin futures arrive in ten days

The dominant story was the CME setting a December 18 launch date for Bitcoin futures, with institutional markets preparing to trade Bitcoin through regulated derivatives. The panel saw this as a collision between Bitcoin’s always-on, global market and legacy finance’s weekday, regulated, circuit-breaker world. Kyle emphasized uncertainty: the same instrument could enable new shorts or give new institutions their first acceptable way to get long. Jeffrey treated the launch as the beginning of a much larger Wall Street phase, with futures leading to ETFs and broader financial products.

Bitcoin futures start trading in just ten days.— Thomas Hunt
Futures had a date, Coinbase had a fail whale, economists had objections, and the old market hours were about to meet an asset that never learned to close.
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