TBG-485

Surge then Fall - Iran War - CA Buys - NY Allows

March 07, 2026 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-485 cover frame

Where the panel landed

How should Bitcoin be read in a week where war risk, sanctions, pensions, New York licensing, and old protocol fights all pointed back to the same unresolved institution?

This was not a panel episode so much as a Thomas Hunt news update, with the chat serving as light counterweight. Thomas framed the week as Bitcoin doing what Bitcoin was built to do: rising on regulatory hope, falling on geopolitical fear, serving enemies as money, and still resisting attempts to rewrite its past. Chicasí pushed back most clearly on borrowing against Bitcoin through Strike, treating it as a possible collection mechanism rather than freedom.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
Thomas remained personally bullish and the Magic 8 Ball answered higher, but the episode was weighed down by war headlines, oil shocks, falling markets, scam stories, and governance anxiety.

What they were watching

The directional consensus was unstable: Bitcoin had surged toward $74,000 on Trump's support for the Clarity Act, then slid back below $68,000 during the show as Iran headlines, oil, stocks, jobs, and inflation darkened the frame. Thomas treated $68,000, $74,000, and the briefly mentioned $78,000 region not as a trading thesis but as evidence that Bitcoin was being pulled between policy optimism and geopolitical risk. The Magic 8 Ball gave the clean answer the market would not.

The Clarity Rally Breaks On War

Thomas opened with Bitcoin's surge to $74,000 after President Trump backed the Clarity Act, then immediately showed the reversal as Iran headlines, oil, stocks, and macro data pulled Bitcoin back toward $68,000. The episode framed the move as a market caught between regulatory catalyst and geopolitical stress.

Iran Mines Around The Sanctions Wall

The Iran segment was the episode's sharpest ideological return: Bitcoin as sanctions-resistant payment rail, now useful to a U.S. adversary. Thomas treated it as a grim vindication of a long-standing Bitcoin argument rather than a clean victory lap.

California Pensions Arrive Late

Thomas mocked concern over CalPERS and CalSTRS crypto exposure, especially exposure through Coinbase, MicroStrategy, venture capital, and private equity. His landing was that institutional caution had made California late, but not necessarily too late.

Strike Finally Enters New York

Strike's BitLicense and money transmitter approval let Thomas revisit the long complaint that New York regulation had slowed lawful Bitcoin access. The chat response was more cautious, with Chicasí and Starship skeptical of borrowing against Bitcoin even when the provider is culturally aligned.

Scams, Seed Phrases, And Human Error

Bitcoin ATM scams and the South Korean tax office seed phrase leak supplied the week's operational caution. Thomas treated both as reminders that Bitcoin's power remains brutally indifferent to user interface, age, bureaucracy, or good intentions.

Laszlo, Pizza, And Early Waste

Thomas revisited Laszlo Hanyecz not only as the Bitcoin pizza buyer but as the inventor of GPU mining who once held vast early advantage. The segment was less condemnation than archival irony: the early network was built by people spending coins before they knew what they had.

Karpelès Asks The Impossible Again

Mark Karpelès' proposal to redirect dormant coins to recover Mt. Gox funds was treated as dead on arrival. Thomas linked it to the broader quantum-and-Satoshi-coin anxiety, landing on the old rule: lost coins stay lost.

Knots, BIP 110, And Data On Bitcoin

A developer embedding a 66 kilobyte image in a single Bitcoin transaction was used as a practical rebuke to BIP 110 and Bitcoin Knots claims. Thomas argued that arbitrary data on Bitcoin is already possible and that the better response may be pricing, not theatrical restriction.

We told you so, but yes, it does look bad for the United States and Iran.— Thomas Hunt
It's never too late, California. Never too late to invest in Bitcoin.— Thomas Hunt
Mark Carpellis can't get them back.— Thomas Hunt
The guy who invented Bitcoin mining actually wasted billions of dollars.— Thomas Hunt
will the price of Bitcoin be higher this time next week— Thomas Hunt
Without a doubt the price of Bitcoin will be higher next week— Thomas Hunt

Story of the Week

Bitcoin As Money For Friends And Enemies

The dominant story was Bitcoin's movement from speculative instrument into geopolitical and institutional plumbing. Iran's alleged mining-and-payment workaround made the old cypherpunk claim visible in an uncomfortable form: neutral money also serves adversaries. California pension exposure and Strike's New York license showed the same network entering regulated American finance from the other side. The episode kept returning to the same dry conclusion: Bitcoin works, and that is not always flattering to the people who said they wanted it.

that Bitcoin is money for enemies, even our friends at the Calpers, and of course it works great for an R.— Thomas Hunt
A short solo file from a long-running show, with the ball bullish, the tape red, and the archive still doing its job.
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