TBG-440

Pardon Ver? - Dogecoin ETF - Hacker Docu - $ROSS Loss

February 01, 2025 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-440 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Did Trump's early crypto friendliness, tariff politics, and pardon culture mark a genuine Bitcoin turn, or just another round of power attaching itself to money?

The panel partially agreed that crypto had bought itself a favorable opening under Trump, but split on how much trust to place in it. Victoria Jones emphasized that Trump was responding to money rather than Bitcoin principles, Adam McBride saw near-term wins for Bitcoiners while warning that stablecoins and Wall Street would inherit many CBDC controls, and Thomas Hunt framed the whole arrangement as temporary protection purchased from a large political machine.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel was broadly constructive on Bitcoin's long-term position but wary of tariffs, executive-order politics, memecoin excess, and the legal machinery now surrounding crypto.

What they were watching

Bitcoin was discussed around $101,770, down from a recent high near $106,000, with the satoshi price hovering just below the old $1,000-per-satoshi threshold. The panel treated tariffs and equity-market stress as relevant to Bitcoin's near-term direction even while resisting a simple price-news reading. Directionally, Adam expected lower, Victoria allowed for a surprise higher, and Thomas remained structurally bullish while admitting macro events still matter.

Tariffs Return As Market Weather

The show opened with the Dow down 500 points as Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico threatened a trade war. Adam McBride mostly dismissed it as Trump negotiation theater, while Victoria Jones argued that repeated market drops showed a financial system already standing on shaky ground.

Crypto Gets Its Trump Dividend

The panel considered whether crypto had received a quick return on its campaign spending through the Ross Ulbricht pardon, the working group, and anti-CBDC positioning. Victoria said money had plainly talked, Adam said Bitcoiners had largely received what they wanted, and Thomas warned that the protection looked temporary rather than principled.

Roger Ver And The Exit Tax

Roger Ver's potential pardon became a proxy fight over taxation, citizenship, and political prosecution. Adam argued that U.S. tax law is so complex it can be weaponized against almost anyone with wealth, while Thomas leaned closer to Jameson Lopp's skepticism and noted that giving up citizenship complicates the pardon argument.

Twitter As Robber-Baron Megaphone

Elon Musk's X debt and reported break-even status led to a broader discussion of social networks as propaganda infrastructure. Adam argued Musk would not sell because the platform is too valuable as a megaphone, while Victoria tied X payments and verification to the wider risk of centralized digital identity and money.

Dogecoin ETF As Institutional Absurdity

Bitwise's Dogecoin ETF filing was treated as the inevitable collision of memecoin culture and financial packaging. Adam thought Solana might be the more likely next ETF winner because of money and political connections, Thomas emphasized Dogecoin's origin as a joke against crypto, and Victoria welcomed the spectacle as Wall Street's version of 2017 silly season.

Razzlekhan, Netflix, And Crypto Crime Media

The cease-and-desist over Netflix's Bitfinex heist documentary opened a discussion about celebrity, embellishment, and unequal punishment. Adam expected Heather Morgan to become more famous after prison, Victoria said Netflix may have overreached in dramatizing people's lives, and Thomas grouped the documentary with the recent wave of public crypto mythmaking.

Ross Ulbricht Meets Pump.fun

The panel discussed reports that Ross Ulbricht-linked wallets mishandled memecoin liquidity and lost large sums to bots. Adam explained it as an inexperienced liquidity-pool mistake rather than a direct dump, while Victoria questioned why someone newly released would experiment with $12 million in such a technical market.

SBF Pardon Talk Lands Badly

Sam Bankman-Fried's parents seeking a Trump pardon drew the sharpest rejection of the episode. Adam focused on why the parents themselves had avoided consequences, Victoria said SBF should never get out of jail, and Thomas distinguished SBF from Ross by arguing there was no political protest behind the fraud.

Who cares, man? Who cares? This Trump doing Trump things.— Adam McBride
wake me up when it's a 10,000-point drop.— Victoria Jones
it's quite apparent that he's just nodding to whoever's willing to pay the most.— Victoria Jones
some very smart people have bought temporary protection from a very big gangster.— Thomas Hunt
Membership has its privileges.— Elon Musk
Crypto's hard man crypto's hard— Adam McBride

Story of the Week

Crypto's Paid Seat Near Executive Power

The dominant story was not one coin, lawsuit, or ETF filing, but the sudden visibility of political access around crypto. Ross Ulbricht's pardon, the proposed Roger Ver pardon, the anti-CBDC posture, and the crypto working group all became evidence in the same institutional case: money had moved, and government had moved with it. The panel did not treat this as liberation so much as a temporary, transactional reprieve. Bitcoin sat inside the story as both beneficiary and witness.

when you buy a politician, you get what you paid for.— Thomas Hunt
The week closed with Bitcoin still above the old impossible line, and the panel still watching power learn how to price itself in coins.
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