TBG-398

Above $63K - Bank Interest - Coinbase Outage - Cramer Cries

March 02, 2024 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-398 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Did the ETF-driven Bitcoin rally mark a durable new supply regime, or simply move the old volatility into Wall Street's hands?

The panel broadly agreed that the ETFs and bank distribution had changed the market structure, with Thomas framing it as the long-predicted arrival of institutional demand and Victoria noting that the halving cycle now had a new force in front of it. Josh agreed on the institutional pull but pushed back against pure enthusiasm, warning that people sell under household pressure and that ETFs can sell too. Victoria was the main cautionary voice, emphasizing that the same large players driving the move upward could also intensify the move downward.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel was plainly bullish on near-term price direction, but repeatedly paired that optimism with concern about ETF concentration, exchange fragility, and institutional volatility.

What they were watching

The directional consensus was higher, with Josh saying he expected a higher price next week and Victoria saying there was "No sign of it slowing down." Organic price levels included Bitcoin topping $63,000, memories of $500, $1,000, $20,000 and $50,000 coins, offers at 62K, 64K, 67K and 80K, and Adam Back's renewed "100K before the happening" line. The show's own mood was unusually positive, though every upward call was shadowed by the possibility that institutional buyers could also become institutional sellers.

Bitcoin Returns To 2021 Territory

The show opened with Bitcoin above $63,000 for the first time since November 2021 and framed the rally around ETF inflows, supply pressure, and the coming halving. Victoria said the ETFs appeared to have changed the usual halving pattern, while Thomas complained that the same institutional effect had not arrived years earlier when retail Bitcoiners held more coins.

ETF Demand Meets Household Selling

Josh warned that rising prices do not erase selling pressure, especially when family members and personal finances push holders to take profits. Thomas countered with the institutional bid, arguing that banks do not face the same rent, accident, or cash-flow pressures as ordinary holders and can buy according to a long-term strategy.

Merrill Lynch And Wells Fargo Join In

The second issue treated Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo as confirmation of the domino theory: once one major bank offered Bitcoin exposure, others would follow customer demand. Josh joked about a WallStreetBets-style hold against the banks, while Victoria warned that ETF operators are still human, emotional, and capable of selling aggressively on the way down.

Institutional Bitcoin As Systemic Pressure

Victoria widened the discussion from Bitcoin volatility to the structure of the broader financial system, arguing that ETFs could stress a leveraged and precarious financial order built without sound money. Thomas compared Bitcoin's growing presence to the appeal of capitalist goods inside communist states, presenting Bitcoin's availability through major institutions as a brand and distribution shift.

The Ball Joins The Bullish Consensus

In the exit question, Josh and Victoria both said Bitcoin would likely be higher the following week. The Magic 8 Ball returned "Without a doubt," producing what Thomas called rare agreement between the panel and the ball.

Coinbase Fails Under Rally Conditions

The panel turned sharply to Coinbase after users saw zero-dollar balances during the rally. Thomas called the failure unacceptable for a public company central to ETF custody, while Josh defended the difficulty of running a highly secure honeypot but agreed that concentration at Coinbase was a major attack vector.

Old Risks Remain Under New Prices

Josh raised custody concentration, Mt. Gox coins, government holdings, and the Craig Wright trial as reminders that Bitcoin's story was not finished. Victoria compared the Coinbase outage to earlier cycle failures in 2017, arguing that infrastructure breaks can damage confidence and sometimes mark overheated market conditions.

Jim Cramer As Belated Opposition

The final main segment replayed Jim Cramer asking what Bitcoin had ever done for mankind. Victoria, Thomas, and Josh answered with the familiar case for stateless value, scarce digital property, and internet-native money, treating Cramer's frustration as a late-stage artifact of the mainstream discovering a thing it had dismissed.

They're all fighting over the few Bitcoins that Bitcoiners won't let go of.— Victoria Jones
Big money people are here suddenly Bitcoins not for criminals anymore.— Thomas Hunt
It doesn't just go up.— Josh Shigala
The real horror show is here, right? Josh, the banks are literally buying up your Bitcoin.— Thomas Hunt
It's still early technology.— Victoria Jones
It allows you to hold stateless value and hold it in your possession without anybody being able to take it away.— Josh Shigala

Story of the Week

The Banks Finally Take The Other Side

The dominant story was not merely that Bitcoin crossed $63,000 again, but that the banks and ETFs were now the active buyers on the other side of retail exhaustion. Thomas treated Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo as the dominoes the show had long predicted, while Josh and Victoria both worried about the consequences of letting the same financial system Bitcoin was built against accumulate the supply. The episode framed the moment as a transfer: ordinary Bitcoiners selling into relief, pressure, and profit, while institutions buy on mandate and scale. Coinbase's outage, Cramer's complaint, and the halving discussion all circled the same point: Bitcoin had become mainstream before the infrastructure or the commentators had fully adjusted.

The real horror show is here, right? Josh, the banks are literally buying up your Bitcoin.— Thomas Hunt
The week ended with the banks buying, Coinbase coughing, Cramer asking the old question, and the beard scheduled to return.
← Back to The Bitcoin Group