TBG-391

ETF Approved! - Too Small - The Hack - Gensler Cracks

January 13, 2024 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-391 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Did the first week of spot Bitcoin ETF trading mark a real institutional milestone, a sell-the-news disappointment, or the start of Bitcoin being carried inside Wall Street's walls?

The panel largely agreed that the ETF approval was historically important even if the immediate price action disappointed the candle-watchers. Dan Eve emphasized the muted market response, GBTC exit volume, and the SEC's embarrassment, while Victoria Jones framed the ETF as a parasite or Trojan horse entering the financial system. Josh Scigala pushed the hardest on Wall Street manipulation, warning that the ETF brings not only access but also the market machinery Bitcoiners have long distrusted.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel was structurally optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term position after the ETF approval, but cautious about near-term price, Wall Street manipulation, and the loss of the old outsider terrain.

What they were watching

The panel watched the ETF launch as a milestone with an anticlimactic tape: heavy first-day trading, possible GBTC exit volume, and Bitcoin roughly flat-to-down after the event. They mentioned ETF trading topping $1 billion in the first hour, perhaps $5 billion on day one, ETFs and Bitcoin both around 5% lower at one point, Bitcoin near an almost $1 trillion market cap, and old reference levels from $700 to $50,000 and the crash down to 17. The directional consensus was not that the ETF had failed, but that the first move had been absorbed by sell-the-news behavior and the next market story had already begun moving toward Ethereum.

ETF Day One Arrives

The show opened with the first day of spot Bitcoin ETF trading, reported as topping $1 billion in the first hour and perhaps $5 billion for the day. Dan noted the possibility that much of the flow was GBTC holders finally exiting, while Thomas argued that even if the price reaction was muted, Bitcoin had finally become available through ordinary stock-market channels.

The SEC Hack Before Approval

The panel returned repeatedly to the hacked SEC account that falsely announced approval one day early. Victoria and Josh saw the incident as a glaring double standard from a regulator that punishes others for market-moving failures, while Dan pointed to the reported SIM swap and lack of two-factor authentication as a public embarrassment for the agency.

Gensler Approves While Condemning

Gary Gensler's approval statement became a second indictment of the SEC's posture: it approved the product while insisting Bitcoin was speculative, volatile, and associated with illicit finance. Josh and Dan mocked the asymmetry of applying that argument to Bitcoin while ignoring the dollar's role in crime, and Victoria argued that the deeper issue was that regulators still did not know how to speak honestly about a technology built to disrupt their assumptions.

Trojan Horse Or Captured Asset

The show's central metaphor became the Trojan horse: Bitcoin had been brought inside Wall Street's walls, but that did not mean victory was automatic. Dan accepted the metaphor because Bitcoin had always advertised itself as disruptive, Victoria warned never to underestimate the enemy, and Josh stressed that being inside the walls also means being in enemy territory.

Ethereum ETF Becomes The Next Thing

Larry Fink's support for a spot Ethereum ETF shifted the discussion from Bitcoin's launch to the next institutional product. Josh expected an Ethereum ETF before a Ripple ETF and focused on proof-of-stake governance risks, while Dan emphasized BlackRock's application record and Victoria said that, at this pace, almost any major crypto asset could end up wrapped as an ETF.

Failure Depends On The Time Horizon

The panel rejected Ran Neuner's framing that the Bitcoin ETF start was terribly unsuccessful. Dan saw the criticism as predictable, Victoria said it failed only for those expecting an immediate God candle, and Josh treated the ETF as another milestone in the procession from early users to companies, ETFs, and eventually countries.

Personal Stories And Crypto Side Roads

The closing segment moved into Victoria's delayed newsletter on Bitcoin and welfare, Josh's completed smart-contract audit with large numbers of white-hat submissions, and Dan's relief that his dog Izzy's new lumps were not cancerous. Thomas closed with Bitcoin-adjacent documentary notes, contrasting Bitconned and The Highest of Stakes as films focused less on builders than on the con-artist edge of the industry.

it's kind of it's been a bit deafened— Dan Eve
allowing a bit of QTF is like allowing a parasite into the financial system.— Victoria Jones
welcome to the manipulation.— Josh Scigala
fancy starting the sentence with where merit neutral and then going into all the negatives.— Josh Scigala
it's literally doing exactly what it says on the tin.— Dan Eve
we definitely in the belly of the beast now.— Josh Scigala

Story of the Week

Bitcoin ETF Enters The Financial Walls

The dominant story was not simply that spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading, but that Bitcoin had crossed from outsider asset into Wall Street product. The panel treated the launch as both a long-demanded victory and a new battlefield, with the SEC hack, Gary Gensler's hostile approval statement, Moody's dismissal, Vanguard resistance, and Ethereum ETF speculation all orbiting the same fact. Bitcoin was now inside the system it had been designed to route around, and the show's argument became less about whether the ETF was good or bad than about what Bitcoin would do once institutional finance tried to package it.

We're inside there. We're waiting to see what's going to happen.— Thomas Hunt
The ETF arrived, the price did not perform a miracle on command, and Bitcoin entered Wall Street with the old arguments still attached to its coat.
← Back to The Bitcoin Group