TBG-308

China’s Back! - MiamiCoin Falls - Portugal Tax - Terra Dissolved

May 20, 2022 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-308 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Could Bitcoin survive another week of governments, municipal coins, tax authorities, and algorithmic stablecoin wreckage trying to make the old arguments new again?

The panel mostly agreed that China's mining ban had failed in practice, with Dan Eve treating the hash-rate recovery as inevitable and Adam McBride taking more satisfaction in the state's inability to enforce its decree. On Miami Coin and city coins, Adam was bluntly dismissive while Thomas argued that the concept might return if tied to actual municipal utility. On Portugal and Luna, the panel was broadly cynical: tax havens close, stablecoin promises collapse, and the institutions meant to police the damage usually arrive after the fact.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel was structurally confident in Bitcoin's resilience but near-term bearish on price and deeply negative on the surrounding crypto machinery.

What they were watching

The panel watched a market still leaning lower, with Dan expecting another down push and naming 27 K as his next-week level. The discussion organically circled 21,000 as the feared MicroStrategy liquidation zone and the broader mood was that everyone had become a bear, even while the long-term Bitcoin thesis remained intact.

China mining returns underground

The episode opened with Bitcoin mining returning to China despite the formal ban. Dan argued that the rebound was inevitable because miners could disperse, hide, and reconnect, while Adam emphasized how hard it should be for an authoritarian state to miss noisy, power-hungry warehouses.

Hash rate outlives the ban

The panel treated the mining recovery as another lesson in Bitcoin's ability to route around political decrees. Thomas framed China's original shutdown as a strategic blunder, noting that China once held a national advantage in mining and voluntarily gave it up.

Miami Coin collapses without use

Miami Coin's reported 95% drop was treated as a predictable failure of a token with no real demand. Adam called out the pseudo-mining model and the lack of merchants or city services accepting the coin, while Thomas and Adam sketched a better version built around actual municipal utility or NFT-like rights.

City coins remain tempting

The panel split on whether the city-coin idea was finished. Adam believed Miami Coin's failure would make other mayors avoid the model, while Thomas argued there would be more attempts because cities, personalities, and public symbols remain easy material for token schemes.

Portugal tax haven closes

Portugal's move toward crypto taxation was treated as inevitable once crypto fortunes became visible. Dan saw it as part of a broader tightening by states and the EU, while Adam argued that governments eventually take back any arrangement that lets people escape their fiscal reach.

Tax havens and Bitcoin exile

The panel considered where Bitcoin holders might go next, naming Panama, El Salvador, Dubai, Antigua, and the Caymans. Adam pushed back on the fantasy of moving somewhere worse merely to pay less tax, saying a better country can be worth the cost.

Terraform Labs closes before collapse

The Luna segment centered on the report that Terraform Labs dissolved offices shortly before the collapse. Adam saw the timing as strongly suggestive of foul play, while Thomas compared the moment to earlier crypto failures where users found there was no office, no counterparty, and no immediate remedy.

Paper gains disappear on Luna

The panel used CZ's Luna position and KSI's failed speculation to distinguish between paper wealth and money actually taken off the table. Dan emphasized the brutality of a 99.9988888888888% loss and warned against putting life savings into fragile coins, while Thomas closed the lesson with the old rule that unrealized gains are not ownership.

We just can't quit you, China.— Dan Eve
What kind of garbage totalitarian system can't control fucking a bunch of Bitcoin miners like they're not that hard to find right— Adam McBride
Pondsy Ponzi's all the way down.— Adam McBride
You cannot ban a thing that is unbannable.— Thomas Hunt
You literally can't make this shit up.— Adam McBride
When you sell it when you have it that's when you have it the rest of the time it's all paper money.— Thomas Hunt

Story of the Week

Luna's collapse turns into a case file

The dominant story was the widening Luna and Terra aftermath, not simply because the coin collapsed, but because the panel treated each new detail as evidence of something worse than bad engineering. The dissolution of Terraform Labs offices before the collapse, the missing reserve story, and the scale of paper wealth erased all pushed the conversation toward fraud, responsibility, and the familiar inability of regulators to act before the damage is complete. The panel also used CZ's Luna losses and KSI's failed bottom-fishing as examples of how crypto gains remain theoretical until they are actually sold.

All this indicates is that he knew exactly what was going to happen.— Adam McBride
Bitcoin survived the bans and the paperwork, while the week's more ambitious coins mostly survived as exhibits.
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