TBG-205

Retail Adoption - Hackable - Not a currency - Energy Saving - Trade War

September 06, 2019 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-205 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Was weak retail exchange activity a sign that Bitcoin adoption had stalled, or merely another quiet phase before price, pain, and infrastructure brought users back?

The panel mostly rejected the idea that lower exchange deposits proved Bitcoin adoption was failing. Theo Goodman argued that fewer deposits can mean fewer sellers, lower summer activity, and less altcoin trading rather than a lack of Bitcoin demand, while Josh Scigala noted that enough buying still exists to absorb daily issuance. Thomas Hunt worried that ordinary people were once again missing a good entry point while institutions, banks, and advanced traders positioned themselves first.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel was optimistic about long-term Bitcoin demand and the coming Mad Tour indicator, but cautious about retail ignorance, media misunderstanding, and short-term price direction.

What they were watching

The panel saw Bitcoin as sideways and quiet rather than dead, with retail interest lower and institutional activity harder to read. Josh estimated that roughly 1,800 new Bitcoin per day, worth about $18 million at $10,000, still needed buyers just to keep the market level. On price, Josh predicted lower, Theo chose exactly the same price, Thomas predicted higher, and the Bitcoin predictor ball refused to answer.

Bitcoin Adoption On Hold

The opening issue covered lower Bitcoin deposits and reduced web traffic at major exchanges. Theo Goodman said the interpretation was too simple, since depositing Bitcoin to an exchange often means preparing to sell or trade altcoins. Josh Scigala argued that people were still buying, because new issuance continued to be absorbed every day.

Retail Misses Another Chance

Thomas focused on the ordinary buyer's failure to enter when prices are quiet rather than euphoric. He argued that institutions, banks, futures markets, and high-wealth traders were likely benefiting first while normal people stayed away. Theo said retail usually buys late, when assets are already expensive and moving.

Bitcoin Is Not Bulletproof

The Mark Mobius segment asked whether Bitcoin could be broken because anything made by humans can be broken. Josh said Bitcoin rests on well-tested mathematics and game theory, making a catastrophic break possible in theory but improbable. Theo called Mobius crypto-curious but unconvinced, and Thomas distinguished between brute-force cryptographic attack and the idea of a hidden backdoor.

Media Still Cannot Explain Cryptography

The exit question asked how the media could better explain computer science concepts like encryption. Josh demanded that people stop using the word blockchain as a vague magic noun and focus instead on cryptocurrency and bearer assets. Theo said the media should start by watching old World Crypto Network videos, while Thomas argued that journalists need enough computer science to understand why encryption matters.

Dorsey Says Bitcoin Is Not Currency Yet

Jack Dorsey's claim that Bitcoin is not yet functional as a currency opened a debate over definitions. Theo said the word currency depends on what school of monetary thought one starts from, and that Dorsey's companies may want Bitcoin to fit their business needs. Thomas framed Bitcoin as closer to digital gold today, with Lightning as the flowing payment layer that can become more currency-like.

Lightning And The Currency Question

Josh pushed back on the idea that Bitcoin cannot work as money, describing his own Lightning payment experience at Room 77 after refilling a channel through a submarine swap. He argued that if someone lives more fully inside Bitcoin, volatility feels different than when they keep one foot in fiat. The panel still acknowledged that most users remain exposed to fiat prices for goods and services.

Mining And Ecological Panic

The mining segment covered reports that Bitcoin mining was becoming more efficient and heavily renewable. Josh argued that the biggest waste of energy is talking about Bitcoin wasting energy, and said miners naturally seek the cheapest power. Theo cited mining-efficiency reports and agreed that long-term incentives push miners toward efficient energy sources.

Bitcoin As Infinite Jest

Thomas framed Bitcoin mining as the golden goose that could incentivize humanity to turn every spare resource into hash power. Theo jokingly said Bitcoin may have been placed on Earth by aliens to extract value into outer space. Josh said miners would keep chasing the last satoshi, while Thomas concluded that Bitcoin's price target remains infinity.

Trade War Over Maybe

The bonus issue asked whether a potential U.S.-China trade deal would remove Bitcoin's chaos premium. Josh said trade wars never really stop because nations and businesses constantly fight for advantage. Theo dismissed direct price correlation as media clickbait, while Thomas doubted a clean deal would arrive by Christmas and compared it to Trump's repackaged NAFTA replacement.

Retail likes to buy expensive things that are already going up.— Theo Goodman
Why would I deposit Bitcoin at Binance or another exchange? Why would deposit Bitcoin to sell it normally?— Theo Goodman
I think people are buying.— Josh Scigala
Bitcoin can be broken into because it's made by humans. That's really a great argument, don't you think?— Theo Goodman
The biggest waste of energy in the world is talking about how Bitcoin is a waste of energy.— Josh Scigala
Bitcoin was placed on the earth by aliens in order to extract all value from earth into outer space.— Theo Goodman

Story of the Week

Retail Waits For Expensive Bitcoin Again

The adoption story dominated because it returned to an old Bitcoin pattern: ordinary buyers avoid quiet markets, then arrive when the asset is already expensive and on television. Theo reframed the exchange-deposit slowdown as a possible lack of sellers and a normal summer lull rather than proof of weakness. Josh argued that buying still had to be happening because daily issuance was being absorbed. Thomas saw the sadder retail lesson: the public was again passing on Bitcoin while banks, trading firms, and sophisticated players moved first.

Retail likes to buy expensive things that are already going up.— Theo Goodman
The episode closed on Zoom, with Valtoro 2.0 nearly launched, the Mad Tour returning to Europe, and the 8-ball refusing to front-run the next candle.
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