TBG-197

BitMain IPO No Go - EU Copyright Nightmare - Vitalik goes Political

March 28, 2019 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-197 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Did Bitmain's failed IPO, the EU copyright directive, and continuing exchange hacks show that Bitcoin's enemies were mostly centralized systems failing in public?

The panel largely agreed that Bitmain's failed IPO was a self-inflicted wound from bad politics, bad timing, and the B Cash bet, though Dan Eve still hoped the company could reverse course. Theo Goodman treated Bitmain as another hard lesson in mining economics and overexposure, while Thomas Hunt framed the fall as a warning to companies turning their backs on Bitcoin. On copyright, exchanges, and security, the panel agreed that centralized chokepoints would fail or be routed around, though Theo was more willing to say custody will remain a legitimate service.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel was constructive about Bitcoin's resilience and decentralizing pressure, but cautious about companies, exchanges, regulation, and short-term market structure.

What they were watching

The directional consensus was that Bitcoin itself remained intact while Bitmain, centralized platforms, and exchanges exposed their weaknesses. Dan predicted Bitcoin would go up the next week and expected a mini alt season, while Thomas invoked the recurring Mad Bitcoins travel indicator as bullish folklore. Organic numbers included Bitmain's planned billion-dollar IPO, its reported more than 1 million B Cash position, Coinbeane's alleged $780 million in daily trades, and the Mad UK tour fundraiser at $149 toward a $1,000 goal.

Bitmain IPO Goes Inactive

The opening issue covered the Hong Kong Stock Exchange moving Bitmain's IPO application to the inactive file. Dan Eve said Bitmain had fallen behind technologically and damaged itself through the B Cash conflict, while Theo Goodman noted that mining hardware is a hard business and that many mining companies before Bitmain had failed outright. Thomas emphasized that Bitmain had been real, had shipped miners, and still represented a Bitcoin unicorn in trouble.

B Cash And The Political Bet

The panel treated Bitmain's B Cash position as the central strategic error. Thomas argued that Bitmain made a big play for influence over Bitcoin and almost succeeded, while Theo said the company should have stayed focused on building miners rather than holding too much of one coin and letting ideology interfere with business. Dan hoped Bitmain might still make a U-turn back toward Bitcoin.

Coinbase As The New Warning

Thomas extended the Bitmain lesson to Coinbase, arguing that Coinbase was turning its back on Bitcoin by becoming a broad cryptocurrency and altcoin venue. Theo pushed back that Coinbase's hiring of Hacking Team-linked figures was worse than simply listing Ripple or other coins. Dan argued that tokens and collectibles would continue multiplying, whether Bitcoiners liked them or not.

Negative Fee ETF

The salt negative-fee ETF segment examined whether Bitcoiners should be angry if the SEC approved it before a Bitcoin ETF. Theo thought the comparison was mostly irrelevant and predicted Bitcoiners would still become salty, while Dan said it sounded too good to be true but not directly comparable. Thomas called it Ponzi-like and used it to criticize the SEC's inability to distinguish Bitcoin from actual financial gimmicks.

EU Copyright Directive

The EU copyright law was treated as a serious threat to memes, commentary, and ordinary internet culture. Dan said it frightened him and would push people toward decentralized workarounds, while Theo said Article 13 would be routed around and its supporters would be recklessly memed. Thomas framed the law as another old-world attempt to control an internet that does not fit the assumptions of copyright-holder-written legislation.

Vitalik Goes Political

Vitalik Buterin's move into political theory and radical markets prompted a mixture of skepticism and amusement. Dan worried that politics could fracture Ethereum if Vitalik stepped too far into divisive territory. Theo said Vitalik had always been political, but worried the new rhetoric might signal boredom with Ethereum and the beginning of a new Vitalik project.

Ethereum's Moving Foundations

The panel used Vitalik's political turn to revisit Ethereum's changing technical promises. Theo noted that Ethereum keeps revising major assumptions, while Thomas argued that CryptoKitties, not self-driving cars or supply-chain contracts, revealed the scaling problem most clearly. The landing was that Ethereum's actual uses remained ICOs, gambling, and memes more than the world-computer promises.

Hackers, Exchanges, And Custody

The final issue covered the Asus supply-chain hack, DragonEx, Coinbeane, HitBTC complaints, and the permanent problem of users leaving funds on exchanges. Dan favored better decentralized exchanges and wallet-integrated trading, while Theo argued that custody will never disappear because many people need or prefer it. Thomas framed Bitcoin as the technology forcing security standards upward, because computers now hold bearer money rather than just files and photos.

Everything breaks on Thursday.— Thomas Hunt
They actually made miners. They shipped them to customers.— Thomas Hunt
don't let ideology get in the way of you doing business.— Theo Goodman
They put up advertisements telling you how you can take your valuable coin and turn them into shit coins.— Thomas Hunt
No, no decentralized it.— Dan Eve
when will people stop leaving money on exchanges? Never.— Theo Goodman

Story of the Week

Bitmain Learns The Cost Of Politics

The Bitmain IPO expiration was the dominant story because it converted years of scaling-war memory into an institutional reckoning. The panel did not deny that Bitmain had once been a real company that made and shipped miners, but its B Cash alignment, antbleed history, and loss of chip advantage made the failed IPO feel earned. Thomas framed the episode as a warning to Coinbase and other firms drifting away from Bitcoin-first discipline. The landing was not triumphalist; it was the institutional observation that even a giant mining company can become another cautionary archive item.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.— Thomas Hunt
The episode ended in audio-only mode, with Google failing, Article 13 looming, and the Mad UK tour leaving anyway.
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