TBG-190

Crypto Plummets - Great Blockchain? - Yellow Vests - Russia vs. $$$

January 11, 2019 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-190 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Was Bitcoin’s fall toward $3,750 driven by Federal Reserve headlines, China regulation, France’s yellow-vest bank-run talk, Russian reserve rumors, or simply another weak market looking for a story?

The panel mostly rejected neat headline explanations for Bitcoin’s short-term price action. Dan Eve said it was difficult to assign the drop to one cause and pointed instead to January selling and taxes, while Tone Vays said Bitcoin remained too small and too separate for Federal Reserve minutes to explain the move. On China, France, Russia, and the 9/11 documents, the panel saw the same pattern: dramatic stories can plant ideas, but most of them are still too early, too theatrical, or too thin to change Bitcoin’s immediate course.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel expected near-term weakness or stagnation, but treated regulation, bank-run talk, and state-level Bitcoin rumors as signs that Bitcoin’s political role was widening.

What they were watching

Bitcoin was discussed around $3,750 after failing to hold gains above $4,000, with Dan predicting roughly $3,400 next week, Tone predicting a short-term bounce, and Thomas calling for a push. The panel did not accept the Federal Reserve explanation as decisive, arguing that media outlets often attach price moves to whatever headline is available that day.

Bitcoin At 3,750

The episode opened with Bitcoin falling after failing to extend gains above $4,000. Dan Eve suggested January selling and tax behavior might be among several factors, while Tone Vays said the Federal Reserve connection looked weak and probably unrelated.

Fed Headlines And Crypto Prices

The panel pushed back on the idea that traditional-market headlines neatly caused Bitcoin’s downturn. Thomas noted that a dovish Fed could just as easily have been used to explain a Bitcoin rally, showing how flexible these headline explanations become after the fact.

China Regulates Blockchain

China’s new rules for blockchain companies required registration and threatened fines for illegal information. Tone argued that China had become less relevant to crypto after many companies left, while Dan saw even restrictive regulation as an acknowledgment that the tools exist and cannot simply be ignored.

How Many Blockchains

The exit question became a joke about whether there can be only one blockchain. Tone allowed that perhaps ten were viable at the moment but expected only Bitcoin to matter in the future, while Dan answered that thousands call themselves blockchains but only Bitcoin matters.

Yellow Vests And Bank Runs

The French yellow-vest bank-run idea was treated as dramatic but unlikely to work. Dan said a real bank run could have dangerous wider consequences, while Tone argued that engineered bank runs usually fail because true bank runs require organic panic rather than theatrical coordination.

French Tobacconists Selling Bitcoin

The panel discussed French tobacconists selling Bitcoin for cash as cigarette and magazine sales declined. Thomas saw the image of buying Bitcoin at local shops as an important seed, even if France was not yet at real mainstream Bitcoin adoption.

Russia Bitcoin Reserve Rumor

A Russian economist’s claim that Russia might move reserves into Bitcoin was treated cautiously. Tone said even a small state-level Bitcoin allocation would matter, but both he and Dan emphasized that one professor’s claim was far from actual government policy.

Which Country Adopts Bitcoin

The panel speculated on which country might adopt Bitcoin as a national currency first. Tone mentioned Panama, Singapore, Hong Kong, Liechtenstein, and Estonia as more plausible than major economies, while Thomas joked that the United Kingdom would be last.

9/11 Insurance Files And Steemit

The episode closed with hackers demanding Bitcoin for alleged secret 9/11 insurance documents and attempting to publish through Steemit. Dan noted that Steemit’s takedown was a poor look for a supposedly censorship-resistant crypto platform, while Tone argued that real leaks should simply be published directly if they mattered.

you can retrospectively pick an article that's the most potential burden and blame on that— Dan Eve
Bitcoin is just, it's too small.— Tone Vays
They always try to link it to the news.— Thomas Hunt
there can be only one.— Thomas Hunt
a bank run is not something that you want.— Tone Vays
It's the 9-11 truth ICO finally— Thomas Hunt

Story of the Week

Price Falls, Headlines Go Hunting

The dominant story was Bitcoin’s renewed price decline and the attempt to connect it to Federal Reserve minutes and traditional-market action. Dan said one can always retrospectively pick the most plausible bearish article and blame it, but the real causes are usually harder to isolate. Tone rejected the macro linkage, saying Bitcoin was still too small for Fed policy to explain every short-term move. Thomas widened the critique into a familiar media pattern: when Bitcoin moves, writers search for a nearby headline and call it causation.

They always try to link it to the news.— Thomas Hunt
The episode left Bitcoin lower, China regulating the word blockchain, France rehearsing a bank run, Russia floating reserve rumors, and Steemit discovering that censorship resistance is easier to market than to operate.
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