TBG-164

Segwit2X Decline - Regulations - BGold - $300M Parity Hack

November 10, 2017 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-164 cover frame

Where the panel landed

After SegWit2X was called off, did Bitcoin win the scaling war, or did big-block energy simply move into Bitcoin Cash and the next regulatory fight?

The panel agreed that SegWit2X’s cancellation was a major community victory, but split on whether it would have been better to let the market test happen. Jimmy Song and Tone Vays were both disappointed the fork did not proceed, arguing that it would have clarified the market and further immunized Bitcoin, while Thomas was relieved that the nuclear version of the fight had been avoided. Jeffrey Jones emphasized that the win belonged to the Bitcoin community rather than to Core as an institution, and all three remained skeptical that Bitcoin Cash was a serious long-term threat.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel celebrated the defeat of 2X but expected a near-term Bitcoin price correction, continued Bitcoin Cash noise, and more regulatory pressure ahead.

What they were watching

Bitcoin was described as diving below 7,000 after the 2X cancellation, while Bitcoin Cash was up about 20 percent. For the first time in the show’s long-running forced prediction, Jimmy said lower for Bitcoin the following week, and Tone and Thomas agreed that the market had likely topped short term. Jeffrey also expected a correction while still projecting 5,000 to 6,000 by year-end and five digits early the next year.

SegWit2X cancelled

The show opened with the news that SegWit2X would not proceed as planned. Jimmy and Tone both said they were disappointed because they wanted the market test, while Thomas argued that avoiding a nuclear chain split was preferable to proving the point in ruins.

Bitcoin Cash absorbs big blockers

Bitcoin Cash rallied after the 2X cancellation, raising the question of whether big-block forces had simply unified behind it. Jimmy said Bitcoin Cash might appeal to medium-of-exchange users and companies needing more block space, but he did not see it threatening Bitcoin’s store-of-value case.

Store of value versus medium of exchange

Jimmy returned to the Keynesian-versus-Austrian framing: big-block advocates value transaction velocity and throughput, while Bitcoin holders value security and scarcity. The panel treated Bitcoin Cash as a live test of the medium-of-exchange thesis, but not as a replacement for Bitcoin’s stronger developer and security model.

The community victory

Jeffrey rejected the framing that Core had won, arguing that the community won: users, meetups, hashtags, shows, and public opposition stopped the fork. Thomas compared the moment to the Berlin Wall falling, while warning that freedom fights recur and cannot be treated as permanently finished.

Regulators circle Bitcoin and ICOs

The regulation segment covered U.S. Treasury comments about Bitcoin and familiar claims about criminal use. Tone argued that Bitcoin itself remains difficult to regulate, while ICOs and centralized coins are ordinary securities or fundraising schemes using new technology to dodge existing rules.

ICO enforcement timing

The panel expected regulators to wait for a clear, high-profile ICO failure before acting aggressively. Tone compared the likely target selection to low-hanging fruit, while Jimmy noted that federal financial cases move slowly and require prosecutorial incentives.

Bitcoin Gold and fork season

Bitcoin Gold was discussed as another Bitcoin fork, with replay protection, a different proof-of-work algorithm, and a mid-chain premine. Jeffrey and Jimmy expected 2018 to become the year of Bitcoin forks, while Tone said Bitcoin Gold bothered him far less than Bitcoin Cash because it was not trying to steal the Bitcoin name.

Parity freezes Ethereum funds

The final issue covered the Parity multisig bug that locked hundreds of millions of dollars in Ethereum. Jimmy said Ethereum’s centralized governance meant the rollback decision was effectively political, Tone argued that prior rollback precedent made another rollback logical, and Jeffrey used the bug to criticize Solidity’s broad attack surface.

I'm kind of disappointed that the hard fork didn't happen.— Jimmy Song
it may be more useful.— Jimmy Song
The community won here.— Jeffrey Jones
Bitcoin is totally irrelevant.— Tone Vays
I think we're going to have a lot more forks next year— Jimmy Song
I'm glad that we didn't have a nuclear war.— Thomas Hunt

Story of the Week

SegWit2X is called off

The dominant story was the cancellation of SegWit2X, ending the immediate corporate hard-fork threat that had dominated recent episodes. The panel saw the cancellation as proof that users, media, meetups, wallet developers, and public pressure could still stop a miner-company agreement. But the victory was not clean: Bitcoin Cash immediately rallied, big-block supporters appeared to regroup, and the panel warned that XT, Classic, BU, and 2X were all iterations of a fight that could return. The episode was less a parade than a battlefield report after the enemy withdrew.

Segwit 2X is not happening.— Thomas Hunt
The fork was cancelled, Bitcoin Cash caught the overflow, Ethereum froze another vault, and the community learned that winning once is not the same as being done.
← Back to The Bitcoin Group