TBG-159

ICO Bans - Hard Forks - Mainstream Finance - Russian Ban?

September 29, 2017 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-159 cover frame

Where the panel landed

As governments moved against ICOs and banks attacked Bitcoin, would regulation, forks, and bans weaken Bitcoin or prove its resilience?

The panel split most sharply on ICO regulation, with Jimmy Song preferring that markets teach bad investors painful lessons while Tone Vays argued that ICOs had become outright securities violations and scams needing a crackdown. Jeffrey Jones took the middle path, calling present ICOs mostly scams but arguing that global token fundraising would survive in a more mature form. On hard forks, the panel agreed that more forks were likely, but disagreed on whether that was useful, dangerous, or simply inevitable.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel remained confident in Bitcoin against banks and bans, but saw ICOs, repeated forks, and state reactions as messy forces that could damage users even if Bitcoin itself survived.

What they were watching

The episode did not center on a fresh Bitcoin price level, but discussed Bitcoin’s relative strength compared with fork coins, ICOs, and banking criticism. Bitcoin Cash was described as still holding market value despite being treated by the panel as an altcoin, while Bitcoin Gold and 2X were discussed as upcoming fork events. The directional consensus was that Bitcoin would remain the reference asset, with forks creating temporary markets, legal obligations, and confusion rather than replacing it.

South Korea bans ICOs

The show opened with South Korea joining China in moving against initial coin offerings. Jimmy opposed bans in principle and preferred market punishment, while Tone argued that ICOs were mostly securities offerings by another name and should not be allowed to dodge existing law.

ICO freedom versus investor protection

Jeffrey argued that the ICO market was currently overrun with scams but that borderless fundraising could mature into something useful over many years. Thomas pushed back by comparing ICOs to IPOs without paperwork, where investors receive promises instead of a working product and may have no practical legal recourse.

Dot-com lessons and dumb money

The discussion compared ICOs to the dot-com bubble, early online trading, penny stocks, and retail investors chasing returns they did not understand. Tone argued that lowered barriers in past markets helped create bubbles, while Jimmy and Jeffrey said people often learn only by losing money.

Zappo, LocalBitcoins, and fork custody

The hard-fork segment focused on Zappo planning to sell customers’ Bitcoin Cash and LocalBitcoins compensating users while refusing future fork support. Tone disliked Bitcoin Cash but still argued custodians owed users forked assets if those assets had market value.

Hard forks as altcoin launches

Jimmy argued that Bitcoin Cash had been a successful altcoin launch by market-cap standards and that more Bitcoin forks were likely because they exploit custodians’ fiduciary duties. Jeffrey expected 2018 to bring many forks, while Thomas warned that exchanges cannot safely support endless new coins without mistakes.

SegWit2X still expected

The panel expected a 2X fork in November despite growing No2X opposition. Tone and Jeffrey said ego and signed commitments would keep it moving, while Jimmy said even one miner and working software would be enough to create a fork.

Bankers versus Bitcoin

Jamie Dimon, the ECB, and other mainstream finance voices were discussed as legacy institutions reacting to Bitcoin’s rise. Jeffrey rejected the tulip comparison, Jimmy dismissed bank executives as non-experts on Bitcoin, and Tone noted that Dimon’s incentives as a banker and possible public official made anti-Bitcoin rhetoric unsurprising.

Russia and government bans

The final issue covered Russia considering a ban on cryptocurrency payments and broader questions about whether governments could ban Bitcoin. Jimmy argued a ban would fail because Bitcoin transactions can route through many channels, Tone said government fights were inevitable once Bitcoin threatened state money, and Jeffrey compared Bitcoin’s path to technologies that old industries first fought and then had to adapt to.

I personally don't think that governments should ban stuff.— Jimmy Song
I'm doubling down on my hatred for ICOs at this point— Tone Vays
People have discovered the ability to print money.— Jeffrey Jones
Bitcoin cash has mostly been debunked as just another all coin at this point.— Jeffrey Jones
I use Bitcoin every single day to store value.— Jeffrey Jones
Bitcoin is antithragile because anytime you do something to add this order to the system, or people come around it and make the system even stronger than it was before.— Jimmy Song

Story of the Week

ICO bans spread beyond China

The dominant story was South Korea following China by banning ICOs, while U.S. regulators also sharpened their language around retail-investor risk. The panel treated ICOs as the place where Bitcoin’s open money model had been repurposed into global unregistered fundraising, with unclear legal status and obvious incentives for fraud. Tone saw the crackdown as overdue, Jimmy objected on principle to governments protecting people from themselves, and Jeffrey argued that the present scam wave did not eliminate the possibility of future legitimate global capital formation. The episode’s core tension was whether bad markets should be allowed to burn themselves down or regulated before they pull Bitcoin into the fire.

People have discovered the ability to print money.— Jeffrey Jones
The ICO cops arrived, the fork calendar filled up, the bankers rediscovered tulips, and Bitcoin remained inconveniently hard to ban.
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