TBG-123

Bitcoin Rises & Falls, Exchanges Unavailable, and Blockchain Blockchain

January 07, 2017 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-123 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Was Bitcoin’s sharp pullback a China-driven end to the rally, or just another volatile step in its deeper integration with global currency stress?

The panel agreed that China still shaped Bitcoin’s market psychology, but split on how much the Chinese exchanges and yuan moves explained the crash. Theo Goodman emphasized perception, Chinese exchange volume, and familiar China-ban-Bitcoin narratives, while Gabriel Divine focused on the People’s Bank of China’s liquidity squeeze and the shock it caused across currency markets. Tone Vays was less worried about the yuan move itself than about zero-fee Chinese exchange volume, fake trading, and the fragility of exchange infrastructure.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel remained broadly bullish on Bitcoin’s larger trend, but treated the crash, Chinese exchange opacity, unreliable exchanges, and token mania as signs of a still immature market.

What they were watching

The directional consensus was that Bitcoin remained in a bullish structure despite the violent pullback from roughly $1,100 to the high $800s. Tone focused on $760 as the key level to hold, arguing that staying above it would preserve the breakout and leave room for a later move toward the $1,350 to $1,400 channel top. Theo expected lower prices, while Gabriel and Tone both expected Bitcoin to be higher the following week than the current $880 to $890 area.

China Reenters The Bitcoin Price Story

The panel opened with Bitcoin’s rally and sudden 20% drop after yuan strength and a Chinese central-bank warning. Theo argued that whether the Chinese volume was wash trading or not, the perception of Chinese dominance still moved the market.

PBOC Liquidity Squeeze Hits Speculators

Gabriel framed the Bitcoin drop as a side effect of the People’s Bank of China punishing yuan shorts by withdrawing liquidity. He cited extreme overnight lending rates and argued that Bitcoin traders were caught in a broader currency-market shock.

Tone Watches The Channel

Tone used the weekly and hourly charts to argue that Bitcoin’s larger uptrend was still alive. He disliked the speed of both the rise and fall, but saw $760 as the critical support area and the broader channel as still intact.

Exchange Outages Show Immaturity

The panel discussed Coinbase and other exchanges failing under the load near the price peak. Gabriel saw this as evidence of broader weakness in client-server web infrastructure, while Tone treated it as a familiar problem of weak exchange engineering and user risk.

Coinbase Asks Twitter What To Build

Brian Armstrong’s public search for ideas and possible interest in funding Core development drew mixed reactions. Theo mocked the poll-like approach, Thomas called it basic business intelligence arriving late, and Tone welcomed support for Bitcoin Core while rejecting competing fork teams.

Blockchain Becomes A Database Pitch

The Goldman Sachs blockchain video and related investment stories led the panel back into the recurring distinction between Bitcoin and enterprise databases. Tone argued that Goldman misunderstood blockchains as ordinary data structures, while Gabriel compared private blockchain hype to 1990s intranet hype.

Token Funds Repackage Stock-Like Claims

Polychain, Numerai, Golem, and Filecoin were discussed as part of a new token-investment model. Tone saw these systems as ICO exit ramps and unregistered stock-like instruments, while Gabriel allowed that new token paradigms might evolve over time, even if most early examples were dubious.

Security Warning Closes The Show

Thomas ended with a practical warning about phishing emails, fake blockchain.info messages, two-factor authentication, and phone-number hijacking. The security segment returned the episode from macro price and token theory to the ordinary risks faced by users holding coins.

Yeah, it's all over Bitcoin's debt again— Theo Goodman
The bulk of Bitcoin mining definitely goes on in China, but we don't know that's a lot.— Gabriel Divine
Bitcoin is supposed to be a bit of a safe haven from these currency manipulations.— Tone Vays
These things aren't cheap and Bitcoin isn't free.— Tone Vays
Trump is a master Twitter user. And Armstrong is not a master Twitter user.— Theo Goodman
The story has been Bitcoin.— Tone Vays

Story of the Week

China Shakes Bitcoin Without Killing The Rally

The dominant story was the sudden Bitcoin price crash after the yuan move and the People’s Bank of China warning. The panel did not read the fall as a simple death blow, but as a reminder that Bitcoin was still thin, exchange-driven, and psychologically linked to Chinese capital controls. Gabriel treated Bitcoin as collateral damage in a broader Chinese liquidity operation, while Tone argued that fake or zero-fee Chinese exchange volume was the deeper structural concern. Bitcoin’s rocket ship had stalled, but the panel still saw the larger path as intact if key support held.

Bitcoin is supposed to be a bit of a safe haven from these currency manipulations.— Tone Vays
The episode left Bitcoin battered but not broken, Coinbase overloaded, China inscrutable, and blockchain investment still trying to turn databases into destiny.
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