TBG-115

Zcrash, Bitcoin China Panic, Venezuelan Hyperinflation, New York

November 04, 2016 · YouTube · All episodes
TBG-115 cover frame

Where the panel landed

Was Zcash’s collapse proof that privacy coins were real experiments, or just another round of engineered scarcity, media hype, and bagholder transfer?

The panel agreed that Zcash’s price collapse was predictable because the launch combined extreme early scarcity with rapid supply inflation. Gabriel Devon treated the underlying privacy research as serious but the issuance model as mostly marketing, while Thomas Hunt focused on whether the founders’ reward and launch structure had actually funded development or merely burned early buyers. On Bitcoin, the panel was more constructive, seeing the China panic as likely overblown and Venezuela as a real but limited example of currency failure pushing people toward Bitcoin.

PessimisticMixedOptimistic
The panel was optimistic about Bitcoin’s resilience and long-term monetary role, but skeptical of Zcash launch economics, China panic stories, regulatory bottlenecks, and the ability of distressed countries to adopt Bitcoin quickly.

What they were watching

The Zcash watch was decisively downward, from the article’s 1.91 bitcoins per ZEC to around 0.88 bitcoins during the discussion. Bitcoin had recently reached the 740 to 745 range before falling toward 687 after a China-crackdown rumor, but Gabriel and Thomas both treated the drop as either ordinary correction or possible media-driven manipulation. The panel’s Bitcoin read stayed broadly constructive, with earlier bullish expectations tempered by near-term volatility.

Zcash Crashes After Launch

The panel opened with Zcash falling from spectacular early levels down to around 0.88 bitcoins per coin. Gabriel said the crash was predictable because the launch severely restricted initial supply and then rapidly inflated it, making the early price more marketing artifact than sustainable market signal.

Founder Reward And Funding Question

Thomas framed the real question as whether the Zcash launch succeeded in funding development. The founders’ reward might support the team, but the crash also created obvious losses for early buyers and damaged the appearance of a serious monetary launch.

Zcash Classic And Miner Incentives

Gabriel noted that a Zcash Classic fork without the founders’ reward could appeal to miners. He compared the situation to Ethereum Classic, where miners and exchanges can preserve or revive an alternate chain when the economics and politics make it attractive.

Ethereum Hashrate Moves To Zcash

The panel linked Zcash mining to the broader GPU-mining ecosystem. Gabriel argued that Ethereum miners had a natural incentive to redirect hardware toward Zcash when it became more profitable, showing how altcoins compete for the same speculative mining base.

China Crackdown Rumor Hits Bitcoin

The Bitcoin price segment focused on a selloff after reports that China might crack down on capital flight through Bitcoin. Gabriel dismissed the story as unsupported and likely market manipulation, while Thomas noted that China-panic headlines recur whenever traders need an explanation.

Bitcoin Corrects But Holds Narrative

Thomas referenced Tone Vays’s view that a correction toward the 600s could be healthy before a larger move upward. The panel treated the China-driven price drop as less important than Bitcoin’s broader uptrend and the repeated need to clear excess enthusiasm from the market.

Venezuela Turns Toward Bitcoin

The panel discussed Venezuela’s collapsing bolivar and rising local Bitcoin volume. Gabriel warned against overstatement because volumes were still small, while Thomas contrasted Venezuela with Cyprus: Venezuela had genuine currency distress, but not necessarily the infrastructure or banking class that made Cyprus a Bitcoin price event.

BitLicense Backlog And Regulatory Drag

The New York BitLicense segment returned to Benjamin Lawsky’s regulatory legacy. Gabriel attacked the Reuters framing as state-friendly and misleading, while Thomas described Lawsky as both consumer-protection figure and capitalist operator who created a rule system he could later advise companies on.

ZEC is still pure speculation at this point.— Kevin Zhou
It was totally predictable.— Gabriel Devon
anybody who is buying is a complete fool.— Gabriel Devon
No and no.— Gabriel Devon
The problems always, whenever the system touches Fiat.— Gabriel Devon
Losky made more money because of what he did let us celebrate Losky— Thomas Hunt

Story of the Week

Zcash Falls Back To Earth

The dominant story was the rapid collapse of Zcash after its spectacular launch. Gabriel argued that the issuance curve made the crash obvious: supply was artificially tiny at the beginning, then inflated quickly over days, leaving early buyers and miners exposed. Thomas questioned whether the founder reward and launch hype actually achieved their supposed purpose of funding long-term development. The story mattered because it showed the recurring altcoin pattern in miniature: technical seriousness did not prevent market design from producing a predictable transfer to late bagholders.

ZEC is still pure speculation at this point.— Kevin Zhou
The episode closed with Zcash deflating, Bitcoin correcting, Venezuela weighing cash, and New York still waiting for permission slips.
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