The Bitcoin Group, the American original. For over the last ten seconds, the sharpest Satoshi's, the best Bitcoin's, the hardest cryptocurrency talk. We'd like to welcome our panelists, Dan Eave, the crypto raptor. Giggity, giggity, giggity, giggity, giggity. Ben Arck from LNBIT. Even all. Josh Shigala from thestandard.io. Alo, ala, ala. And I'm Thomas Hunt from the World Crypto Network. Moving on to issue one. Issue one Bitcoin advocate, Michael Sailor, stepping down as CEO of the company after the crypto crash loses it, one billion dollars. While they're claiming everything is fine and he's moving to a new position that'll allow him to continue to invest the company's money in Bitcoin, as predicted on this show, Michael Sailor is indeed seemingly in trouble with his company for losing one billion dollars in Bitcoin. Micro strategy seems to be an all Bitcoin company, Sailor moving over to the President role and micro strategy to have a new chairman of the board. Dan Eave is this what the Bitcoin group predicted when they noticed Michael Sailor and Micro strategy seeming to have a single strategy of just buying Bitcoins, which often go up, but sometimes go down. It does kind of seem like he was, where he was chilling Bitcoin so much, maybe he upsets some of the shareholders, obviously not just because Bitcoin dropped, but because he was showing his own personal bags as well. But initially I saw it frame very much, it's like, Michael Sailor is finally stepping down because he's been the CEO since 1989. So he's finally stepping down to focus more on Bitcoin, just like Jack did for example. And then it suddenly dawned on me as like, or maybe it's because Bitcoin has kind of dropped quite a lot since I think it's a bit of a billion dollars and they're down at the moment. But the share price has made a reasonable recovery. It was a low of about 155, 156 bucks and now it's back to 318, perhaps, is off the back of the Bitcoin price. But it's only recovered or only gone up a little bit since he announced he was sort of stepping over. But being Chairman gives him a bit more power to hire and fire CEOs and also as he sort of said himself to focus more on Bitcoin and the strategy side of it. But yeah, my prediction for the last or the price has been, you know, lower and for the last couple of more three, four weeks and I've been wrong every time, which is good in a way, but it's also bad because I like being every now and then. But his bar, I think it was 3K. The sailor bar was, you know, he said, was 3K would be would Wipeout, um, micro strategy. So it'll be interested to see now that he's moved as he's moving away from the role of CEO if they do a Tesla and start scaling off how much Bitcoin they have or whether his influence there's still going to be enough that, you know, what you would wise sell now, wise sell when it's down and why not just wait until the harvining and the kind of cycle comes back in because we all, you know, we know that eventually it's going to be back up higher highs in theory based on previous data, right? So yeah, it's going to be an interesting few years up lead up to the harvining and to see how his role kind of, his role, his new role shapes the micro strategy strategy. It sounds like Michael sailor meddled with the primal forces of nature. Ben Arck, what about micro strategy and their new CEO? I guess this is why we get these like prolonged flats periods in Bitcoin where we feel like the price should be going back up, but it doesn't because there's these people at microsail who have these huge bags, you have a boss, everyone else's boss, his boss is the shareholders and he's now, I mean, to step down, I mean, it's just bad timing. I'm sure he wouldn't choose to step down from that role after 20 plus years have been in that role in the bottom of the bear market. But while they're not now, micros strategies will start selling off some Bitcoin and then keeping that, you know, prolonged downturn or flat period in Bitcoin, which we kind of, I think we're starting to accept what happened up until the harvining pump, which is the usual pattern of behavior for Bitcoin. That's what we'll look out for next, I suppose, but he's been this great spokesperson for Bitcoin, he's good at speaking on Bitcoin and I kind of feel sorry for the dude. I think maybe his strategy, his micro strategy might have been to buy a load of Bitcoin, pump the hell out of it and then he thought that maybe just he could loan, she'll Bitcoin to the moon and it just shows that no one can control it, no one can control this thing, this asset, it just goes down and goes up in price and even if you've got big fat bags, you can't control it. But I do kind of feel that there's probably a few Michael type sailors out there with big bags who are now having going to have to sell off some Bitcoin and that's going to keep that price suppression and keep that downward momentum and maybe just keep this flight lightning up until the harvining pump. So some people say that Michael Sailor just wants to spend more time with his family, yes, more time with his family. Joshua Chicago, what about that? What about Michael Sailor and the $1 billion Bitcoin loss? Josh is muted. I'm so sorry. So the thing with micro strategy is that they've been around since like the late 90s and they went through the internet bubble. I think they even had an ad at Super Bowl at one stage in the full hype of the internet bubble. But after that they really didn't do anything. No one heard of micro strategy or nothing and it reminds me very much of a company called Duwala who were doing money transfers to Mt. Gox. Now Duwala were nobody. No one knew this weird fintech crap company that had no relevance at all and Bitcoin made a massive. Everyone was talking about Duwala all of a sudden and they've really got an apron. They raised money on the back of it. And then they dropped Bitcoin because you know there was a bear market and something happened and they were like ooh and then you know it was that oh you better not touch Bitcoin. And of course as soon as they dropped Bitcoin they fell into absolute obscurity again. And I feel that what micro strategy did is basically become a household name within the Bitcoin or crypto industry. And as soon as they sort of do this and distance themselves from Bitcoin they'll be like well what do you guys even do? That's all you do is hold Bitcoin. You are essentially an ETF. You're a company that holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet and people buy shares in your company effectively buying Bitcoin. What are you going to do? You're going to let go of that business model now because you just have got these paper hands as and then forcing the hand of Michael Sala with these like diamond ex go extra long leverage the all the Bitcoin you can because he has this vision. I think it's a terrible move. They need to have to keep that backbone understand that right now is the time when it goes back up you can see historically it's born, born, born, born, fear and greed index buy when it's fearful don't sell. Anyway let's see what happens I think it's a shame because it's these companies that think they're so big and famous because they're successful when really they're successful because of Bitcoin and they should they should realize that. What I find so interesting about the micro strategy strategy is that it would have worked really well if they were early to Bitcoin. If it was 2013 and they were watching mad bitcoins and they just heard an Andreas speech and their eyes opened up and they started buying Bitcoin. We all could have bought stock in micro strategy early people who needed their retirement funds could have invested there. Bitcoins could have celebrated it early on and we could have had a champion to fight people when they were calling us rat poison when they were saying it was drug money for years they attacked Bitcoin with these things and we had no champion. So that's when we could have used them now that everything was good and fine it felt like they were just piling on with the rest of the good news and now that we've had a bad turn exactly what we said would happen he's been taken down by the board good or bad wants to spend more time with his family. I like the thing where they said he's going to work on our Bitcoin strategy which basically seems to be borrowing money and buying Bitcoin. So revolutionary strategy could have been a little earlier 2013, 14, 15. Any of the previous downturns would have been a great time to enter but he didn't enter during a downturn he entered during an uptrend and he's been the king ever since. Josh is sending us the Super Bowl ad we'll see maybe we can play it later but we've got to move on to the exit question. Exit question predicting against the incredible and baldest travel eight ball in the business the greatest predictor of predictors Dan Eve the price of Bitcoin this time next week higher or lower. I've got to go now I'm still thinking he's going to be going to dip below 20 again soon I'm very sad but don't worry everyone I'm wrong always so that means in what the negative news crew from Dan continues Ben Ark do you also have the pessimist bug of virus that has made you wrong and me right week after week after week. Yeah Laura we're in a weren't stressful bear market times when people when it puts it on perspective and you're like I just want to spend time with my family I'm so stressed out it's Bitcoin thing and then most people they just go back to work and they just keep that little Bitcoin stash but someone I might call sailor can't because this is this whole world so yeah it's it's going to go lower at some point just keep predicting it's going to go low and it'll go lower hopefully. Josh a gol adjoining in on the negativity or is anyone going to join me in positive land. My question is are you flying soon in between well when when mad big coins flies around the world historically the price goes up so let's see maybe that will happen again. Josh is using the Sherlock Holmes logic right there it's a two pipe problem and now will the price of Bitcoin be higher this time next week we're asking the ball says for sure for sure take that you pessimists for sure the price will be higher the ball has spoken this is obviously financial advice moving on to issue two senate bill would hand Bitcoin ether oversight to commodities regulator yes as we've been requesting for over eight or nine years now they're finally going to consider treating Bitcoin as a commodity not as a security as we've said for years Bitcoin a new form of money the internet's form of money is much closer to a commodity or even a currency like a cryptocurrency like the thing we've been calling it still calling it a commodity would perhaps get rid of the penalty for every time you use Bitcoin allegedly according to the tax code you're supposed to pay every time you buy and pay every time you sell like it was a security of course most people don't use securities to buy coffee that means you'd pay every time you'd buy coffee and you'd have to have a mark in your taxes for that Ben Arck your thoughts on the United States seemingly coming around to their senses presumably at like an actual bill that might actually pass labeling Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities not securities well they are commodities so that kind of makes sense it's kind of a double I saw it and I feel like it's a good and a bad thing like it's nice to have permission most permissionless development in a murky area where you can just kind of develop stuff and it's murky enough that you're probably going to wear with it with the regulations aren't really there yet so you can kind of squeak between the rules and I know in the US you've kind of got all the states side stuff so different states have different rules different regulations but then for companies operating in the space they just kind of want clear regulations and what's the way they stand so they can put together sustainable business models which are going to have to change when regulations change so I can kind of see both sides of the argument obviously you know regulation on Bitcoin is bad for innovation and commission and development but can be very good for these companies you need to operate in a regulated environment and there's a quality so I think it's good news in that regard. Josh Scheghalla the states got a state now that the state is here everything can be fixed we'll all move forward together holding hands singing. Come by yeah come by yeah yeah it's it's been what it's been treated as in Germany for a long time as a commodity that's why it's capital gains tax-free after holding it for a year in Germany I think to the to the envy of many many of people around the world it's it is a commodity it's a rare number that's found into existence just like gold is a rare metal that's found into existence and spent it's not it's not a security that's conjured up in someone's book out of thin air sure it's out of thin air but it was actually found with a lot of power and mine this rare number so it is a commodity you know I understand that a state needs to classify things places I would consider it as a good which I guess any like a good is also classified as a commodity in a way but yeah I think it's a good move it's definitely not a security I would be interested to see what happens on ETH because ETH allows you to do a whole lot of things and it's not just Ethereum it's all the tokens that happen on the Ethereum network I guess would be treated very differently I think here that we're talking specifically for the Ethereum cryptocurrency and the Bitcoin cryptocurrency it is interesting to continue to see people calling Ethereum a commodity not a security when we know it had an ICO it had a pre-mind and the pre-mind was used to support its development so it almost seems like a company that would have an IPO and use the proceeds from the IPO to support their company it almost seems like they sold a stock which is what we said years ago and apparently we were wrong because the price of Ethereum went up Dan Eve your thoughts on Bitcoin and Ethereum being treated as commodities what's definitely a positive for Bitcoin and really an Ethereum whether or whether or not you know you're on the side that it's a it's a security what's interesting is that like a lot of the sort of feedback you see on Twitter is that from from sort of Max user of an angry about the fact that the Ethereum's included included in that in that you know this in going under the CTC rather than being you know under SEC oversight more so than just being happy that it's being considered a commodity rather than the security itself but as you pointed out the fact that it's because obviously there's still people trying to call for it to be a security because they don't know what Bitcoin is but the fact that it's a commodity rather than as you pointed out rather than actual money when you think about it like when when you send it's Bitcoin is more of a of a more money like than the money we have now that has all these different settlement layers when you send Bitcoin it's final when you send you know when you buy yourself like steel or rice or whatever on the internet you know you're you're you're not actually buying it though you know you're not sending the asset directly but that's what you're doing with Bitcoin when you're sending money over the internet with PayPal or whatever you're not sending that money directly you're selling you're sending kind of you know offline versions that are settled at different times or whatever so so Bitcoin really is like the most money type of money that you can have but it is being considered a commodity which is better than which is better than nothing really at least is being recognized so yeah I think there's I think it's ultimately it's a good thing obviously being people are still angry about if they're being included in that but on the on the on the same side you've got one thing that I thought was interesting from a from again from policy side so Elizabeth Warren's book got a bill to stop offering banks from offering banks as crypto services which is is when you think about is actually kind of the point of Bitcoin is that you don't need a bank to actually to buy Bitcoin right you don't need a bank so it's it's interesting to see you know I don't know if it is this final one is this is this absolutely final can it be contested so it still can be contested right yeah so it'd be interesting to see how it does play out and how much support they do they do get but I think it's it's obviously much better than it sits under the the CFC then the SEC that's for sure well that blends well into the exit question forced prediction predict the future Josh Shagalla will this bill pass yes or no I hope so Ben Arck I think they they they appreciate and they want to make room and space for a Bitcoin industry to be able to grow and develop and this thing's here to stay so I think it's a good sign in that regard I was kind of interested actually and it was going to rush about this like when it comes to a commodity something like gold which is a commodity does that make room for all the different commodities use cases of gold like how gold is used in dentistry electronics jewelry etc it would that be similar for kind of Ethereum or Bitcoin in that it as this registered as commodity that there's that that still applies for it in its various commodity uses yeah it all it does is categorize it under the tax law and such that's all they care about the use cases the use cases are arbitrary yeah and Dan Eve yes or no will they pass the bill oh I don't know there's still a lot of environmental fun it's pretty big at the moment so yeah but I think yeah I think you'll be I think I think you'll go through I think you'll go through biggest cross I agree with what Dan said they want to make room or Ben I think a second ago he said they want to make room for a Bitcoin industry they don't want to chase this away from the country and they fear that the confusing and perhaps draconian tax code would chase it away so I believe they will pass this bill things will get better for Bitcoin in the United States moving on check out worldcrypto network dot com where we now have 3000 videos that's a lot of videos thanks to DJ booth for creating this website also check out on this day you can see we did two videos in 2020 a video in 2019 2018 two videos in 2017 two videos in 2014 and a video in 2013 all on this day at worldcrypto network dot com or madbitcoins dot com moving on to issue three Bitcoin mining difficulty rises 1.74 percent after three consecutive drops yes Bitcoin mining has recovered and is rising again this means that more people are mining Bitcoin making it harder to mine Bitcoin despite the price being down from an all-time high of around 60 000 Dan Eve your thoughts on the Bitcoin mining difficulty rising after three consecutive drops so it's back up I think now it's what 20 28 coins a bit info shots 28.175 terahash which is which is which is crazy and the sorry difficulty and difficulty and about one 199 exa hashes which is still pretty much only about 10 10 15 percent below its all-time height so you know it still is and will be for probably forever the most secure network on earth secure power but this got me thinking about like my old so I dug up a spreadsheet I had which is called Bitcoin count V2 and this was the the July I think 2014 when I used it so I priced up a load of so bear in mind like the the ant miner 14 at the moment the thing the most powerful is like 14 terahashes and the order I put in unfortunately long time ago was for the butterfly labs the SGL 600 and then after that was the monoc 60 giga hashes seconds that's how much like a back back then it was one of the fastest when I was looking and I've got like an a pretty spreadsheet where I priced it will happen some of the oldies there's an ant was an ant miner what is it this one there's an S1 the old old old school K and C Jupiter for all those for those reminiscing out there the blocker up to cube the BF butterfly labs BFL 50 giga hash miner and yeah very very old school little spreadsheet and I should have just I should have just but instead I think I ended up mining something like philosopher stone and bought a bunch of script miners and some crazy ass stuff so should it just bought Bitcoin and should it just mine the Bitcoin and but no it's I think it's incredible like you just you know looking at the stats I didn't actually record it knowingly what the difficulty was back then but it certainly wasn't anything near 28 trillion and all time high of 30 trillion you know so it's just it's incredible how much of a long way it's done and that was 2014 so that was like late for this since late to the scene really it already went since 2009 when it probably started off for the difficulty of one when it's a social kick to all off so yeah it's come a long way and it is the most secure network on earth uptime the incredible amount of uptime probably and I don't know if anyone's ever done a comparison but like the most uptime ever of a system gotta be right it's gotta be so yeah erase a Bitcoin Ben arc if Dan Eve is correct why shouldn't miners just buy Bitcoin and hold it why do they even mine Bitcoin are they doing it for some political reason are they motivated by something other than money I don't know I'm not so question which you could ask about Bitcoin mining throughout the entire Bitcoin history isn't it I mean I don't need too much about Bitcoin mining in fact so I really got too much to say on this topic but when we have a drop like that Dan I was going to ask you this like when we have a drop in in hash rate is that because they're switching their miners to mine something else or what's the reason for it the drop in the drop in hash rate might just simply be like you know it could be something as simple as like if it's depending on how long it's all it's down but like a mining mining you know out there's moving right they've had to move premises or something like that it could even be that they've had to power cut or internet out or something crazy like that but it's probably likely this it could be switching over hardware right it could be like bringing some new hardware online but then there's problems with the facilities so they take the old hard line hardware off before they've got the new hardware back up so or it could just be something old and fiddly like when stuff just used to go wrong and you want you're away from it and the support's not there like they don't I don't know the guys haven't a split for whatever and they're like where's Hank where the hell is he he's got to go and switch the table back and dammit the whole mining out there's down that's what I used to do I was like at one point I phoned my girlfriend I was like skiing and I had team viewer on my phone like in the in the out and I was like using gooey miner and I was like Harry mine a threase down be like quick quick go and restart the machine and you have to go and like turn it off and then turn it back on again and yeah so it's your fault and your sketchy miner's going offline is it so these I guess it's took since the the previous subject with the us having more clear regulations around Bitcoin like they can for miners now it's going to be easier for them to set up if they have like clear estate real countrywide regulations post estate right regulation I don't know much about money but I know shilling mining which is an Irish outfit mining outfit they've switched completely to renewables now wind farm which is very exciting I finally have and also I think I've got like three examples of actual renewables being used with mining which I can put my awesome Bitcoin mine awesome eco Bitcoin repo so congrats to shilling mining for that but yeah apart from that I know idea why the hash rate drops and pops back on I mean I'm sure like it's done says it's uh people moving their operations elsewhere and maybe now with clear regulations in the US maybe they'll have a lot more miners moving that way Josh Egaala the price of Bitcoin recovered slightly and everyone turned their mining machines back on yeah I mean mining is a very calculated business model you you basically have a runway and this has been all the way back when Bitcoin was 30 bucks like miners were not profitable unless you could hold Bitcoin long enough with the capital gains at the time because difficulty versus how much hash rate you could pump out so it's always being the same so what happens is that there's a definite number that a definite price that Bitcoin gets to where you can then calculate okay I can hold this if Bitcoin stays above this price for a number of time then we can turn on the miners now and you know take X X amount of profit from running these machines so what you want to do is basically wait until you hit that price and that's why you'll get suddenly usually round numbers because very sometimes can be quite human but then if it's very intensely calculated you'll get down to the cent in terms of longer haul what about the what about the cost of energy with the Ukraine Russian stuff do you think that could have effect hash rate that that can absolutely affect the hash rate this this is all complex math basically in a spreadsheet that you plug in stuff and have real time and you know the the the thing is you get also different pricing in summer and winter because more people turn on especially when it's super hot everywhere everyone's cranking the air cons then the premiums on energy go up during the day at nighttime it drops down so you might switch on more miners there's all sorts of stuff happening and it's easier to turn on miners and turn them off than it is let's say crank up for energy things like you know actually creating the energy it's kind of hard to wind that up and down but yeah there's many reasons the the stoned engineer falling asleep but as well as actual hard numbers and the math of profitability on on Bitcoin miners and how long you can hold versus in a bear market so yeah it's it hash rate always goes down when there's bear market and it always goes back up as soon as starts bullying again it's actually should be part of the fear and greed index at one point one of the major effectors for hash rate was the season in China whenever it was the flooding season they'd have to turn off their miners and move to higher ground and when it wasn't flooding all the machines would be running so it's interesting to see how the over saturation in the past of miners in one country led to actually a geographical weather indicator showing us where the mining would go moving on to the exit question there's an idea in the Bitcoin community that ending the mining subsidy is a bad idea and that if we end the mining subsidy as currently planned it goes down about by half every four years on average eventually going almost to zero certainly well below one Dan Eve what do you think should we continue to pay miners or is there a chance that Amazon and other companies will step up and mine Bitcoin for the good of the network maybe the users will mine it or do they all need to be paid should we edit how Bitcoin works but that that sure if we if if you kept them giving a block reward that means you'd have to change the supply right there they would have to be a because otherwise it you know it's going to be fee-based but if you think about the fact that it's scaling down by a half each time so it's such a long way to get to that you know was it like 20-30 so 21-30 or something it's such a long time to get there and in theory you know if Bitcoin's price is going to be a million and plus them and whatever is kind of as the prophecies are for toll then by the time it reaches you know even like down to like I don't know like put you know a few hundred thousand Satoshi's per per block for the reward the fees are going to be so for so profitable because Bitcoin and theory the price is going to be so high that it may not need that block reward right because that is the that is the subsidy the subsidy is the fees Bitcoin's are expensive that the miners could work on the fees I don't know I'm not I'm not economist but what I can tell you is that is that Bitcoin is here to say and a lot of economists or call themselves professional economists still don't think so and they've been wrong all this time and they will still continue to be wrong so yeah I don't know I think I think the fee structure should should cover for I think and if the price you know based on the price eventually the co-hook doesn't price to quote Garth from ways wanes world it's like the only reason that you're doing it is because you're getting paid and that's just wrong man Ben Ark having the the price and the happening go down the reward go down is part of the long term purchasing decision for Bitcoin but what good is it if it kills the Bitcoin I think this is a very important topic and I think I've mentioned it a few times that we should challenge those Bitcoin dogmas and you know just hypothetically in our minds like maybe this 21 million hardcap for now it's great as a bootstrap period everyone gets immense wealth and they pull that wealth back into Bitcoin and we have this great growth and development of the Bitcoin ecosystem but eventually games theoretically would that be in the best interest of everybody for that cap to continue to exist for example when you're securing the network and you haven't to pay these miners whether or not will you know still be using proof of work by then I don't know but I think it's a very important question like why we stuck to this arbitrary number 21 million it gets a lot of Bitcoiners on edge because it's something which is sacrosanct and and and saying stone that only every 21 million of these things but as we saw as we saw with the John Newbury inflation bug like it's it is possible to create more Bitcoin than the 21 million cap and it could be done probably in a way which isn't hard fork I think it's probably something the the users of Bitcoin when that problem really rises to the surface or when they actually really rises to the surface the users of Bitcoin will decide whether or not they want to get the 21 million cap and whether or not they feel that actually a steady rate of inflation and continuing to pay mining would be in the best interest of the whole network some people would argue that by that time like nation states will mine Bitcoin at a loss is a a way of securing property because they don't want one nation to have 51% control over the Bitcoin protocol so if the US is like mining for free and they're trying to take control of Bitcoin protocol and China will also mine for free and they'll compete and they'll be competing basically over the securing their property and on Bitcoin that all feels very hypothetical to me and I think it's a very good question like should we be beholden to this 21 million cap and I mean for now I think it's you know it will continue to be what it is but I think eventually but personally I feel that we could very well move away from it and incentivize mineness to continue mining but yeah it's a good topic and I'm glad that people are talking about it more now well and certainly the reason Ben that the Bitcoiners freeze up when you talk about it is because it could hurt their investment thesis if you have the hodl investment thesis and you get your you know point one Bitcoin or one point Bitcoin or whatever you're going to hold it because there's only 21 million and you're locked in and it's really simple if you start messing with that it messes with the investment thesis also people feel like they got a bad deal they got in other people made money they wanted to as well and then on top of that looking over at Ethereum for a minute they've actually made changes to make holding their coin more valuable more profitable they've introduced that burning system they get rid of the fees they get rid of the excess coins it's actually a deflationary structure and if they pull off the switch to proof of stake there'll be yet another reason to hold your coins reducing the number of coins in circulation and perhaps increasing the price of the base currency which seems to be what the Bitcoiners want as well Josh Shagall what about this idea Satoshi said 21 million other people say maybe more yeah it's it's it's it's actually I think Ben has kicked off the next scaling debate because actually it's it's been a concern of mine if I run just the vague be alert out gut math in my head I start to think well look if all the transactions are running on second layer which they should what's what's incentivizing the you know and and I really don't and there's nothing forcing me of closing channels the years and I just keep passing Satoshi's around it's before I settle for like let's say three years I guess eventually I will have to settle but but maybe that that transaction will be too expensive maybe it will be not expensive enough because you know there's not enough people settling and this is this is constantly this is like my brain I constantly like think oh yeah but no but yeah but no and in a way having um and I'm not saying this is the right way to go I'm just saying it's an option like Ben in a way having a continuous very slight inflation it's this is horrible to say um could be an answer to the scaling debate where that keeps the miners happy because they're they're ready to take new fresh Bitcoin let's let's say it's just one Bitcoin every block or less you know it's half a Bitcoin of block but it's a controlled inflation rate that the concern for me has always been not that that there is no that there's an absolute set number and it's a deflationary system of course the 21 million was what got me really uh into Bitcoin it was what highlighted the Bitcoin all those years ago back in 2010 it was like holy shit there's a thing that it can be limited to 21 million only and it's digital that's amazing and the 21 million was the savagery number but because of the scaling debate and I and I can tell you if you have infinite block size some asshole will fill that block up if you have a 10 gig block size some asshole will pump shit into that block until it's full and as soon as it's full and it's and it'll be cheap all the way up until it fills up it'll be cheap cheap cheap then mega expensive and so really what what happens is that really the the ultimate scaling is layer two is lightning and on Ethereum it is going with multiple side chains as well as a lot of the other stuff that they're doing there but yeah we have to incentivize the miners and continually incentivize them I don't know I think this is a conversation that might need to happen once there's mass adoption of lightning and we start seeing more and more transactions happening on lightning and less and less transactions happening on the Bitcoin network again we've seen the we've seen the hashing rate which is absolutely extraordinary it's way above security like it doesn't need to be this secure so I think there's a way to go down and still keep it secure so yeah I mean it's a conversation I'm I'm willing to have it's a scary conversation because there's a lot of very very hardcore 21 million nerds I guess that'll be called instead of big blockers but yeah interesting conversation I like it and just like that Josh Egala became a Kenzian right on the air you watched it happen he said inflation is necessary additional funds will be necessary just thinking about off the top of my head one of the ideas maybe if we look at Bitcoin that haven't moved in nine or ten years Bitcoin that maybe have been sent to a null address maybe even we could set up a null address and you could donate your Bitcoin to that address and then it could be given to the miners and many of those solutions I do think we need to pay the miners but I'm not quite so doomsday on everybody about the network just stopping I think there'll still be a lot of incentive to run the network either as Ben said as a government or a company like Amazon who sees it in their best interest to continue the network or even individuals or computer researchers who keep it running to see what will happen next however it always is good to be paid and to pay people for their work and previously that's how it's worked on Bitcoin moving on to issue four issue four the CME group is back again and they've got futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum this time tied to the euro it seemed like only yesterday they introduced CME futures and I'm pretty sure the Bitcoin market crashed horribly after that the futures people taking it out on the Bitcoin hotlers and wrecking the market Josh Shegalla will it happen again is the are these futures once again just a clever way of saying we've created a system where you can bet against new technology and we're all going to make money and new technology is going to lose yeah first of all what the hell is that we had picture of that dude with the shiny hoodie and a mask on it just seems weird I don't know what is why why it's that guy it looks it also looks like he has a bag that looks like food delivery so Bitcoin Ethereum is that image food delivery and the article I noticed now is written by Emmanuel John Milton which is always good when we're using other people's names but oh well so much for Bloomberg yeah but okay so these these interesting ways of creating paper contracts to to bet against Bitcoin for me is totally arbitrary and the thing is that all it does is give strange parts of the speculatory environment access to Bitcoin in a weird way it's just like you know you can you can bet odds or tails right it's sorry positive negative you can you can bet on zero or one but if you go to the casino there's a nice picture you can bet or neither this picture or that picture it's the same bet it's either going to go up or down but it's you know now you're betting on a nice two pictures these these tools are just different ways of betting on the Bitcoin price or the Ethereum price the thing is that it gives access to certain types of money easier and and that's what's what's interesting I personally think all of this stuff is more of a manipulation the ability for large large people access people that have access to newly minted federal reserve nodes to be able to access so newly minted federal reserve credits I should say to have access to Bitcoin exposure on the down and that's really that that is a price manipulation and it could be definitely use of price-minshing let's see what happens you know honey budget doesn't give a shit that's that's all I know well everyone always tells me that I need to grow up and allow people to short things and allow people to bet against stocks even when I think we should be being more positive and betting on stocks and betting on things that you like however once again the thing that worries me here is the thing that worried good old overstock dot com back in the day and that's naked short selling I worry about these fancy institutions saying well you want to bet a million dollars against Bitcoin you don't actually need a million dollars to make that bet and then if you can get a bunch of those not back to bets and they put them on the market they affect the market as if they were backed that's where we have a problem and the more and more of these weird Frankenstein's financial innovations they hook up to our good old Bitcoin the more I know that one of them is going to say hey how about you let me short it now and pay for it later and that could just completely manipulate the market as we've seen with gold and silver even admitting recently in trials that they did in fact manipulate the silver price just like everyone said but I don't think they're going to punish the company it was just a few bad apples you Dan Eve what do you think about the CME futures they're back to take our money again yeah wasn't it it wasn't it wasn't it JP Morgan as well they got caught max it was yeah or at least there was a lawsuit about it was a few bad apples at JP Morgan of course the whole company would never be in favor of a policy that ruined the silver market oh of course now of course they they wouldn't be in favor of making money for the company via manipulation and on the handway they're too respectable to do that of course but with Bitcoin and stuff it seems like it's okay it's a free everyone's still calling it the Wild West right so it's free everyone's got free reign to kind of to manipulate right now in the open obviously the thing is with the futures markets at least there's a bit more kind of a little bit more regulation kind of behind it but isn't it a weird thing that they're just released or the releasing a euro futures market when when pretty much like isn't it like one to one at the moment is it like one one to one for euro to dollar so it's like it's just like it's just I don't know like a mirror a shit coin mirror so you can fight with this shit coin or this shit coin but they're both the same amount and but and there's also I think the other thing is that we haven't sort of picked up on here right now is the fact that there's that pesky little ether again including on Bitcoin riding on the cartels of Bitcoin so you know it's obviously CMEs we know how we ether futures as well times the euro but it's a crazy world out there it's a crazy world out there I think to Naked Chults are obviously very dangerous and I agree with Druss as well about the fact that it's you know newly printed credit that just kind of funnily enough gets printed out of nowhere so whilst everyone's saying Bitcoin just comes out of nowhere you know it's the print money out of thin air but so does so does quantity of easing so so and that that seems to be okay and everyone's the liqueuries with that and then they're now using quantity of easing to infiltrate these futures markets and then and dampen the bright futures of Hodlis so I think it's bad bad bad I think we should stop the sell button or at least the anyway you could sell Bitcoin is a higher price when you bought it and that's the anyway so that way the price literally only goes up we should yeah that's it I think we should we should put a virus out there so that you could you can only sell Bitcoin at a higher price by the way I just want to quickly interject and you know make sure to state the fact that I don't I don't think I would vote or upgrade my Bitcoin node to an inflationary Bitcoin that goes above 21 million but about I like the conversation and I think the conversation should be had oh we've gotten to seeing like already as well I also wanted to interject as well that the josh's advocation of of inflation isn't for Kenzie and to increase aggregate demand in the nation is to increase and keep the security of Bitcoin which is a very separate thing to Kenzie economics yeah and it's not arbitrary like I mean that like the thing I I don't like about Fiat is you don't know in this many years how much it's going to be what I like is a set rule to be you know okay in a set rule I know exactly in a hundred years how many Bitcoin there is I guess that if we change that as a community which will never happen anyway but even if we vote on because there'll be people who say no enough and but if we if we say there's one at least there's a set amount and this is kind of important right there's a set amount we know it's one Bitcoin every block that's released or half Bitcoin or one tent to keep the miners happy while everything goes on layer two but yeah and that's why we have dead high consensus isn't it because we're not going to end up with that kind of model where someone can just turn on the money printer like yes maybe after a lot of like investigation research and science we may decide at some point that keeping steady inflation in Bitcoin to incentivize mining is a good idea but it is something which which would we would arrive that collectively through dead hard consensus and like Josh says it may just never happen because oh and it would absolutely end up in a fork where one half goes one way and one half the other that's twenty one is yeah it would the twenty one is it would definitely be small block a big block type of nightmarish sixteen year long debate well I like I like dance idea to fix the cell button I think when you push sell it should say are you sure you want to sell you should push it again it should show you like a chart of Bitcoin going up and like you are here are you sure you want to sell and then maybe the sell but it's moving yeah moves around the screen and you're like trying to click on it and then it says like push refresh to sell and then it says like don't push refresh will log you out like there could just be a whole system this is what coin base should have been working on instead of all those things where you could learn about shitty altcoins and get some or how they kept working hard to add the next shitty altcoin to their platform they could have just had this perfect system where just like you know how you can never unsubscribe from some of those things like the record club and that kind of stuff they keep going through menu after menu like deleting your Facebook account like are you sure you want to delete face club your friends will miss you and they show you big pictures of them all the friends I cried yeah they put a bit coin piece a guy looking really sad like one time one time Lazio had ex sold his bit coin and he only got two pizzas for 10k do you want that to be you like this is the kind of technology that coin base should have been working on instead of all the nonsense they were doing but yeah we still don't have it we still don't have that exchange that will stop you from making a horrible mistake with with with it's an awful face of crying but then underneath this is not financial advice please do it for I do think that I know 21 million is it's a very nice number and I don't want to offend anyone but I think human psychology which should have been like still finite but like 21 billion just so that you know I mean obviously we wouldn't have the more than one memes like oh you know there's only 21 million people so not everyone on the world can have one we wouldn't have those memes but we would have a number that you know because you know when when I try and she'll Bitcoin people still are like I can't even have one like so now they're seeing is a negative right not rather some people see is an active like I want a whole unit and I know it's a something to respire to but it's just like you know gratis points all the cigarettes sort of points that you used to get an air miles and stuff they don't give you like you get nought point nought nought one air miles and this journey you know you get like seven trillion gratis points with this one pack of cigarettes like and that's it that's a psychology thing I think actually you used to annoy me about pinball machines the numbers were too big it was like being being well seven million 652 billion four hundred thirty two thousand yeah I don't know that was a weird number I just called out but you know it was just too big I just wish I'd played the pinball I was like seven seven yes I got seven this time you know that's that that's that so I mean we're not long to go on read it or not long ago but a while ago I'm read it every day there was some posting I'm in the one in the million club because they have twenty one coins and then it's like I got a Bitcoin and then people are will be like I got twenty one million sats so I think the bar just lowers so I think it's okay I think sats can you can have the best of both worlds people because I still have something they can target for but we need the exchanges to start listing sats as well like I think I think sats is a better idea than trying to change it or trying to have move the number down I do like dance I did twenty twenty one billion that's better usually people say like like 42 million like we just need twice as much or a hundred million but to put it up into the billion level really does kind of psychologically like I see what you're saying we could have had a lot more but then if you think about the early Bitcoiners would have been buying hundreds or maybe thousands of Bitcoin I like that down the split twenty one billion look forward to it but it's it's all relative though right it's you know if I just think that if you hadn't have had the twenty one million in your head the mindset would have been different anyway like it's only because we're point we're we're basing it on our relative point in space time about knowing already that there's this history of twenty one million whereas twenty one billion you know it would it would mean that people you know Dores from number 42 can have seven Bitcoin instead of 0.3 I always think I just I always imagine because Satsoshi was genius right and I imagine just Satsoshi start there with this you know sit growing a big stick and then he's just like yeah I'll only be twenty one million just fine it's fine it's fine bootstrap and it's the bootstrap thing like he knew that this was the bootstrap period fifty years of immense grunts because everyone gets rich and portal back capital back into Bitcoin and then in the back of this head he's like oh yeah probably we'll divulge from the twenty one million but for now yeah twenty one million not only every twenty one million just carry on carry on by Bitcoin it is now it is now a magic number like we're funded by twenty one million is the most magical number it used to be three according to the most death three it's a magic number no it's twenty one million they should remake that song that was uh... nielson that was nielson uh john lennon's friend i feel like we've heard that's hunchen but then bend well let's see well i do think dan should write that up as a bit then we could call you a Bitcoin core contributor uh we do need to go back to ben arc and say ben what do you think about the cme's plan to unleash Bitcoin and either futures on the market it's another double i saw it so futures are useful and important for people on their balance sheet when they don't want to have this you know if they've got this speculative thing which they're working with and they want to protect themselves so you've got local Bitcoin traders you still time they would like hedge the Bitcoin price so if Bitcoin dropped too much or went up too much or whatever or dropped too much even so then they won't be wiped out completely in the time in which they had the coins and then that's that's true for you know bigger operations as well that that's why they need hedging they were hedge against the price of Bitcoin so they're not exposed to that extreme volatility for short periods of time but then when you have like crazy price volatility then those that gets wiped out people get wiped out and then actually that contribute to the volatility so for the for the for the for the short term yes it's a good way for you to like you know hedge against the volatility but then when you actually have like a proper downcycle event then it actually perpetuates the downcycle and makes even worse for everybody but I mean so Galois this week they've released a stable sats thing which was based off the the standard sats idea where they do hedging so they have sats and then they do hedging on the Bitcoin in order to keep a peg to the USD and then they have like a stable coin solution so in your wallet in your Galois wallet you'll have you know whatever Bitcoin beach wallet that the people of our Salvador will have Bitcoin sats but then they'll also have USD and USD will be stable stable to you know one or two percent and that's the ability we kept through hedging so it's a powerful tool like a useful powerful tool for those sorts of mechanisms and all that notes I would also like to say that the standard sats this is very important week because standard sats have merged my very goofy PR which I put in I managed to sneak in Cumbri coin which is the Welsh pound so Cumb coin so C C Y M that's now that's now in therefore of simple Bitcoin wallet so standard sats the way it works is they you have an Eclian node and then you have this plug-in which you can put into your client node and then it does hedging with collider so you can keep a peg to USD or to GBP or to Euro or whatever and then by using a host to channel so this simple Bitcoin wallet uses a host to channel off that Eclian node you can then have a stable medium of exchange for someone to use so in Wales we could have a wallet with sats in but then someone can also choose to have their funds in a host to channel which is to Cumbri coin and they can they can interact and they can find sell using Cumbri coin in a key sustainable peg and it's actually just the Euro but it's called Cumbri coin anyway managed to get my PR in there so I was pretty happy about that it now exists the Welsh have we now have our own currency peg to the Euro and on the Euro USD parity this is something else I wanted to cover I can't help feeling like my conspiratorial mind like the ECB is just waiting to be able to turn around after a year or two of USD Euro parity and say hey guys why don't we just use the USD you know why I've got this Euro thing let's just look at dollar so that's my my conspiracy theory on the ECB on European Central Bank but now hedging future is important for that stuff but it also then makes volatility worse ultimately because people get wiped out we're running out of time but we're moving to the prediction or a story of the week Dan Eave are you ready with a prediction or a story of the week go ahead I just want so what I know that I'm dragging this out but one more thing to add like Bitcoin is a new form of technology why don't we innovate a new financial instrument we've got we've got spot we've got futures why not why not a past ETF why not a past ETF and go think about that we write that for next week so I can speculate on the price of what Bitcoin used to be yeah nice and you'll always be right exactly exactly innovation innovation that's what that is so my prediction is that in after after the sailor the debacle I can't call it that after sailor stepping down to focus even more on Bitcoin because he doesn't focus on Bitcoin enough I think the Elon is going to step down to work on Doge excellent prediction excellent prediction Ben Arca prediction or a story of the week go ahead I'm trying to get my my my screen share ready whether I can do a screen share I'm going to try and do a screen share what you'll have to bear with me though because I'm trying to find the video so two stories of the week the first one is that you know managed to get come coin in in simple Bitcoin wallet which is great and then the I'm just trying to make sure I'm not going to dox anyone here the whole world of using it that's the joke um with that let me um clear my screen a bit so I don't end up doxing myself right oh man oh Linux entire screen oh there we go cool are I'm I showing a screen you are hey the entire screen okay okay yeah you can see telegram all right cool um so here we have uh Vlad who's one of our Alan Bitt's developers on our on-chain wallet in Alan Bitt so you can manage your on-chain funds we now have a very cheap five dollar hardware wallet which would be working on where you can log in to the hardware wallet and then you can do stuff so the idea is that you know if uh yeah so we've got the idea is that a cafe can accept Bitcoin payments on our peak point of sale extension and then we have a loop power extension to on-chain so on-chain is not dead yet uh the the cafe owner can accept Bitcoin payments in you know lightning and then it loops out to on-chain and then they can manage that on-chain funds in this extension so so here we are so this is a he's got his ex-pop in there so we can you can generate addresses and so on but then also using this very cheap hardware wallet we can give to somebody they can then spend funds as well um so here I think in this little video we should be able to see okay so the CA have like a you can pick which coins you actually want to spend which is quite nice and then you can check and send uh allow it and then it's a passing PSBT and then it says okay that's the amount you want to send next and then confirm uh signing PSBT then you're signing it on an external device so the the hardware wallet has your private key when you can sign and then you can manage it through your alambites on-chain um um you through the on-chain wallet extension so it's pretty powerful for as a a kind of like onboarding tool um and uh where do I see if I can go back here now uh how do I how do I not share screen anymore you're not sharing this is all done it's all done through uh what web serial so then you're not having so you basically you can go onto the on-chain extension plug in your five pound hardware wallet and then sign transactions on the hardware wallet send them back to the extension the extension will broadcast them um and it's all just done through the browser uh over web serial so you're plugging your hard this hardware this five dollar hardware wallet on it's not it's not a crazy secure hardware wallet like uh you know like a treasor or something like that but it's very good for if you're onboarding a cafe particularly in in someone like Europe where most people who are accepting Bitcoin payments they they just want it as a way of accumulating some Bitcoin um so they will retrieve the transactions in lightning and then they're looped out on-chain and then they can manage them through this very cheap hardware wallet so that's that that was my story of the week is it's Vlad's contribution there with that hardware wallet it's fucking ex very cool very cool yeah is it open source hardware wallet oh yeah yeah one of those this is so this is off this is the best thing about it is it's it's a very standard micro control it uses an sp32 there's a million varieties of this micro control this is as well we've picked with a nice little screen on it but you could use any old micro control sp32 micro control on it but what you get because it's an off the shelf device is you lose the supply chain attack which is which is very powerful so actually if you had like if you want super security you could have like a treasor with a secure chip and then you could have an off the shelf device micro control like sp32 and then the factory which is making this sp32 is they don't know that that's going to be used for a hardware wallet and then that way you get kind of the best of both worlds so hopefully we'll pull in some multi-sick stuff as well into it eventually but for them now it's just a nice tool for you know your cafe or borrow let's just manage you know a couple of tens of thousands of dollars worth of funds in a way which is like easy to use all right and check it out at ln bits you just google that ln bits josh egold you have a prediction or a story of the week get ready i predict that i predict that no i the story of the week is we're going to start to do a proof of attendance on our twitter spaces so if you join our twitter spaces you get an amazing NFT and yeah i thought it was a really cool idea to have these we've made this beautiful rings and you get this this ring image and it's a power the the standard ring of power ring of destiny and a ring of destiny and of course we'll use it to help market the standard a little bit so you'll put your you know you'll tweet about us and say hey ring of attendance i was attending the twitter spaces and put your address in and then yeah we'll truck you one of those so join us go to the standard go to the joint join the diss i've said for a long time that NFTs are perfect for marketing you can give them out from us for free you can track your subscribers you can send them additional gifts you can use them as tickets or ticket stubs they can be collectibles i think it's just a fantastic ways for companies to get their word out there even this week the circa casino in Las Vegas sold an NFT and then had a fancy party for people that owned the NFT and that's long predicted on this show and other shows when we talked about NFTs or blockchain collectibles but it's good to see it happening and like Josh is saying here you can give something away for free and then later on that thing can have value they had a giveaway recently over at curio cards they gave away like an apple that you could attach to your moon cat another early NFT and now if you look at the moon cats with apples they're selling at a higher price than the normal moon cat so something given away for free now becomes something valuable so it's interesting it's super fascinating as an economist that it's the most fascinating side of the whole space is is watching these little mini experiments pop into existence and i'm going to do this for a propagol yeah anime mma fighting it's also interesting to see they had another sale this week of the honus Wagner baseball card the most valuable baseball card in existence it sold for around seven million dollars and they said there were only 50 of these cards in existence according to the information that they have and i thought instantly of my blockchain collectibles my curio cards and how we can tell exactly how many were printed by the contract how many were lost in this contract how many haven't been active on the network in five years so on and so forth and just the incredible amount of information that you get with blockchain collectibles and that this information is really the valuable part like we all learned about metadata in all the trials so we'll have to see how that goes if NFTs come back with the rest of the crypto market but we're running out of time still a chance for you to give us a thumbs up on the like button we didn't say it a bunch of times today so maybe we get less likes than if we remind you about it all the time but there's still a chance for you to do it for free by yourself just to push that like button recommend us to some forums paste it into reddit say on twitter give us a comment all of those things would be great otherwise it's about the end of this show and thanks so much for watching until next time bye bye