The Bitcoin Group, the American Original. For over the last 10 seconds, the sharpest the Toshis, the best Bitcoin, the hardest crypto currency talk. We'd like to welcome our panelists, Blake Anderson, cryptographic economist. Hello, thanks for having me central, I mean decentralized. Kyle Torpy from KyleTorpy.com. Hey everyone, great to be here. Tom Vays from Liberty Life Trail. Hi everyone. And I'm Thomas Hunt from the World Crypto Network, reminding you to give us a thumbs up and a share to help more people find the show. Moving on to issue one. Issue one. So called Satoshi speaks Craig Wright shared more of his controversial opinions recently speaking at the future of Bitcoin conference in the Netherlands. Wright is on the side of the bigger blockers saying loudly that Bitcoin should be used for buying coffee that node should cost $20,000 that Bitcoin scaling could be fixed in three hours. And the block stream developer Greg Maxwell is secretly working with the Australian tax office to track him down. Blake Anderson, your thoughts on rights, ramblings. Well, I think that Bitcoin should be highly centralized. No, I mean decentralized because we need one world currency. No, I mean a decentralized currency. And if you don't have $20,000 that piss off. I think that what he said was very, very interesting for very many reasons. I think that most notably he said that do you want to be able to verify the chain or do you want to have money that works? And it's like, well, it's so facto in the hierarchy of understanding means that if I can't verify the chain, then what you're saying doesn't make any goddamn sense. So I mean, I guess that's just the strongest point that I can end on is just think a lot about the order of operations in the hierarchy of understanding and then saying that. And then think about what that means. And I'll pass it on to the rest of the panel here. With the real Satoshi B so angry Kyle Torpey. Yeah, I don't really understand why people are even paying attention to Craig right. I mean, he's been proven to be a fraud a bunch of times. And then he shows up at this conference where I don't know if they. If he was planning to go on because John Matona is kind of like went up there and then said I'm going to give my time to Craig right. So I don't know if the conference organizers can be held responsible for that. But yeah, this is a weird situation for Roger Verr to because even like all of his followers and all the big blockers were like, we know he's not Satoshi. And then Roger sent out that tweet where he's like, I don't care whether he's Satoshi or not, I agree with all this stuff he's saying. But I mean, the only reason people are even paying attention to this stuff is because he's because he fraudulently said he was Satoshi. And like everything that I mean, even if you're going to say like you're going to pay attention to what he's saying no matter what. Everything he said has been like the technical stuff about segway he put out everyone who has a technical understanding of Bitcoin was like this is BS. And then that. That thing about segment from a legal perspective was really strange and crazy. And then like coin desk was pretty quick after they published that to like get all of the Bitcoin legal experts to explain how that was complete the S2. So yeah, just I don't know. I don't really know why we're even talking about this guy. It doesn't seem like he should have been on the stage given the fact that he's a roots from fraud. His fraud was disproven. Why is he still around excellent points Kyle tone vase. Yeah, so Kyle that was an interesting point because he wasn't on the speaker on the original list. It was charmatonus. And because of what happened during that event, I have completely lost a lot of respect for charmatonus because like they're like working together now over an N chain. Now I always knew that Roger B here was working with Craig right. I'm sorry. I can't call him by that name. I call him fix Satoshi. That's the only way I refer to him by I apologize to my normal followers because they know I only refer to him as fake Satoshi. So face Satoshi going on stage. Well, I like I watched that presentation. It was actually the only presentation I've watched from that conference. I know I need to watch the rest of it because I'm sure the rest of it is just as entertaining as that presentation was. I'm actually very happy that that presentation took place for several several reasons. First of all, I've heard that the what you call it the Reddit cesspool occasionally known as R BTC had actually have huge infighting over that presentation. So that's one amazing thing that came out of it. The other amazing thing that came out of it is that anyone that was like leading or like on the fence about big blockers or what they were planning to do. Should now have full realization of what needs to be done. Like I think that presentation and people talking about that presentation has done more for the user activated software can seg with that anything like that I could have said. So I actually I'm actually very very happy that he went on stage and said that. And I picked on a couple of things that he said. I mean the $20,000 note part is insane, but it's also great. It's like the more you fight it the more the opposite happens like the more you fight the drug war. The worst you know that the more people want to rebel and you know go again and do drugs right it's like same thing with like parenting and kids. So in this particular case the more big blockers start screaming that you shouldn't run a node only like these all you need is 12 nodes around the world and that's all Bitcoin needs the more people want to create the wrong nodes through raspberry pies to kind of stick it to them saying no no no wait a minute we can't afford for megabyte blocks because our nodes won't work. So the more they scream in the opposite direction the more the community is fighting back you can see the amount of a bit 148 nodes that are popping up left and right. I'm assuming almost everybody saw my tweet from yesterday when I put all of my equipment together in one spot and that that that's now my most popular tweet ever. And I'm going to spend this entire weekend setting up my minor setting up my node setting up everything setting up my resort move my points. I'm just going to this is my prep weekend this weekend because next weekend on I have a little trip and the weekend after that I'm going to California. So this is like my only weekend to get everything done. But so people are actually fighting them back so the $20,000 node was ridiculous the most awesome thing that he said was they were going to start a mining pool and they were going to start rejecting cycle blocks which is also amazing I hope they do that I mean they're threatening to fork off the network. And this is kind of great I also on my podcasts people are still worried about them and look I noticed that like you you can only buy popularity so far eventually you will run out of money right because Bitcoin doesn't have a government that can enforce the rules. All they can do is spend more and more money on medium propaganda and eventually you run out of money and that's exactly what's going to happen to them because they're trying to take over protocol development and they're spending all this money trying to take over protocol development so they don't have to spend money on the propaganda that they cover protocol development. But when that fails they will eventually run out of money like they will literally have to threaten and actually fork off the network. And you can't trust any of them somebody tweeted at me saying that fake Satoshi had swore that he was only going to be on camera one time like a year like a year ago and now here he is on camera doing a presentation like you can't even trust them on the smallest details. So all in all i'm happy he did that presentation it was so unreasonably dumb and insane that it's actually helping the segwood adoption so much I love it. Our best friends are our enemies and thanks to the 260 or so live viewers if everyone can give us a thumbs up and a share that helps more people find the show let's move on to the exit question. Forced prediction Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto yes or no Blake Anderson. I said the first time that he spoke in public when we were at the D we were there all of us live at the World Crypto Network. After the first time I heard him speak ever I said this guy is not Satoshi and if he is Satoshi I'm out because this guy is so not what I signed up for and I'm really honestly I was so confident that he wasn't that it wasn't really like a fair look. I'm out you know gotcha and you know so I don't think that he's Satoshi I made a pretty strong statement early on and because I made such a strong statement early on I might not be the best person to answer this question but I felt very strongly early on since early on that he that he is not Satoshi and I think that there is more recent statements actually back that up. Kyle Torpig. Yeah I'm also going to say he's not Satoshi it seems like he's using this fraud to give himself his own clout because as we said like the only reason people are paying attention to what he says is because people think he might be Satoshi which is also why he's targeting people like Roger Ver who will do anything for political gain in the Bitcoin it seems. And I also saw tone mentioned the tweet saw I saw another one that was like a public I think it was a post on a mailing list from Craig right a few months before the Bitcoin white paper was announced where he was saying like anyone. Anyone who tries to remain anonymous on the internet is a coward or something like that and then this Satoshi white paper came out like a few months later so she's another to information I guess. Could be more ironic leading if he is Satoshi tone phase. No he is definitely fake Satoshi so we have I'm going to keep calling him that but I told suddenly elaborate on what Blake said about the D the for the D hotel event. I will we were all there well not a guy you were in there but like that world other world group the network members were there and I was actually given a heads up that he's going to be the guy on the sky call or the hangout or whatever they were using for him I was actually given a heads up ahead of time that this guy has a high probability to be Satoshi so because of that heads up I was paying attention to it and I do not have I did not have the technical. A competency like Blake does in order to make that distinction right then and there so there is no way I could have known if he was or wasn't however I was leaning that he wasn't and then I Gavin and Jason personally convinced me for like a minute that he was because this happened up against last year's consensus when he had just. Managed to full Gavin and recent and convinced Gavin that he's Satoshi and that I happen to be sitting next to Gavin like later that day or the next day and Gavin was very very certain so I'm like okay maybe he is and that a couple of days later it was proven that Gavin is a bit incompetent and not assessment and then it all went back to the way should. It's been an interesting journey and certainly I'm always excited when we have a Satoshi because it would make Bitcoin more of a normal project it would give us someone to ask questions to and it would help fill in the history maybe give the media some relaxation over the billions and billions of dollars that are out there but I'm going to agree with the panel I don't think that he's Satoshi I want to second what Blake said we watch that presentation live he made incredible claims of the power of his super computer so much so that. Professor who was with us wanted him to simulate the Bitcoin network on that computer and tell us what happens we could learn from the power of his super computers but it doesn't seem like he ever had those computers the records of him buying them are questionable there's tax problems it's very unclear I think he might have been related to the Satoshi project perhaps maybe he had pieces of things but I don't believe that he's Satoshi but time will tell after keep looking and find out. But was there also report today saying that there is some kind of a liquidation of his super computing company to pay off some kind of a back to debt I don't want to talk about people's debts or what they may or may not have but in terms of if you get into a really really rough financial situation and you know enough about this stuff to be able to fool vast majority of the population I can understand the draw to doing that. Yeah also one more comment that there is very little incentive for people in a Kyle you're you're an investigative journalist there's very little incentive for you to like do all this research to prove that he's face Satoshi like it's it's it's tankless research right because then the next month some other crazy is going to come out and then you got to do that right like proving the negative is just such a thingless annoying. It's not like a very bad process and some people have taken the time to dig into his past and like find a major holes in it but but all along like why why on earth would I spend my my valuable time like digging into his past and doing like research and research on that for free just to this prove him like it's it's it's it's really like there's not much money in doing that or. I mean and the majority of the people are really kind of convinced that he's a he's a face Satoshi so that's kind of one of the issues but some people have got out that they just prove a lot of his like earlier statements about his past and like showed them his lies. Yeah like I said i'm not really interested in talking about him recovering it all but to add to what Blake said. I forget where I read it but there was also that company encrypt which is now in chain when they. Got Craig right to join the company they also acquired all of Craig rights companies. Which cost the company fifteen million dollars to to do so that's that's definitely an incentive to uh. To act like you're Satoshi I think that was uh I thought there was something about a hundred million I told and she got sold for like a hundred million or something yeah that's what they raised but the. The part of it where they acquired the rights to Craig right like also I'm saying just just Craig right portion of it. Right raised the raise the hundred and they hand the fifteen mil to Craig right. That's what the article seemed to indicate but I'd have to go back and check okay I think it was the guy who was writing the book on a. They were trying to get me to write a book about Craig right is like the life story of Satoshi and then you just realized that it was a complete farce and you just wrote an article about how. It was obvious at the end. And now they are they are holding block chain patents and they may attempt to come down on Bitcoin in the future another very not Satoshi action but I'm going to agree with the. Well while and while they're doing that and they're accusing block stream of holding the patents and and going after people which is obviously never going to happen. And block stream has said publicly their patents are for defensive use which is good right up until we get to that point we'll have to see how that goes moving on to issue to Bitcoin replaced Eric Voorhees legendary Bitcoin or and the CEO of the shape shift exchange things that Bitcoin could be replaced. If the scaling issue is not settled the debate which has been going on for the past two years has according to Voorhees been settled by segwit 2x the CEO lends the support not only to segwit but also to hard forking Bitcoin he claims that Bitcoiners are generally not interested in the scaling debate and that a solution should be adopted post haste tone vase your thoughts on Mr Voorhees and his ideas. What was this article I literally read through the articles like 30 minutes ago did you like flip the agenda now that's been in the discussion the whole time doing this live. Okay so okay so I recently got into a little debate with the record he's on Twitter and I left the debate saying you you don't get it. And I love that right I mean at one point three days ago he texted at me asking what what is an economic note and meanwhile he is one of the biggest economic nodes of his company in the space. So I don't know what's going on here like I really don't like I find it I don't know if I find it insanely disappointing that the people that I somewhat looked up to when I joined the ecosystem back in 2013 almost every one of those people that you know they didn't really get me into the space I mean I got the Bitcoin on my own but when I was learning about the space when I was learning what Bitcoin was but I was learning what Bitcoin was. All of the people I respected are the complete opposite of that today like I wish these people were no longer in the space like I don't I don't understand how this happens I don't understand how like the it's like mindboggling to me like I really don't get it. It's like I feel like I'm in a bizarre world right like everything has reversed like I think Eric where he has lost completely lost touch with what Bitcoin stands for. I can I jump in on that I got a jump in on that I don't think that he's lost touch completely with Bitcoin with what Bitcoin stands for I think that he has a family and he has overhead and that if Bitcoin development goes in a specific way. Shape shift may not have a value proposition anymore so I think he's pigeonholed in disappointing something for his own benefit that's maybe not for the benefit of other people and I can't really attack him too much for that because he has a family I mean he has you know people to feed and stuff like that it's just that I've immediately disagree with his position. If I know no fine let me let me play those advocates to that right prior to this recent mess I thought I always considered Eric where he used to be an honest you know fairly trustworthy guy he hasn't scam that he won in the Bitcoin space yet right I would respect Eric where he's a hundred times better if he would come out and publicly say that. Save what you just said Blake everybody would respect him better the core developers would respect them better they will give him a call and say hey listen let's talk about this right but when you start pulling the G. I think I'm not going to be on a call you know supporting bullshit for personal benefit without being honest about it that's a problem and I will be calling you out I'm not supporting what Bitcoin stands for I can respect someone that straight up says I have a business that isn't a benefit by what you're doing what can we do about this and if there's nothing that can be done about it then sure I will support not I won't support but I will at least understand that I'm not going to support you. I'm not going to be honest about I mean like you're speculating that that's what he's doing you're speculating that he realizes that for his business what he's doing what he's doing to support his business but he's not saying that he's doing that that part I have a major problem right and I know it's hard to work out motivations and it's really maybe not that productive talk about motivations but whenever somebody's doing something you really can't figure out of this making you really really really really really really really really really really easy to do with soon these three things let's try to think about a pragmatic reason that they might be doing this. That's his reason that's just what I'm what I'm trying to assume so don't don't don't know that that's fine and that is a reason why let me throw one more in there let me throw one more in there right a lot of these early Bitcoiners they got rich on Bitcoin they've done really really well and a lot of them own companies and look I don't own any companies all I do is make YouTube videos and I am busy as hell okay so I can only imagine how people like Roger Vier Charlie Shram Eric Warhees I can only imagine how busy these guys are like Vitalik Booter in forgot say right so these guys are incredibly busy and they run companies and they have to you know they have employees they have customer service support so and what happens is they don't have time to pay attention to shows like this where perhaps back before they would be on shows like this all the time so and not to mention that now if you're rich and you make a lot of money you want to enjoy that money right you want to splurge on that money so it's by no fault of your own you start to you know party a little too much enjoy all the money that you've paid and there's nothing wrong with that and you're busy running your companies and then what ends up happening is you're not paying attention to the actual debate on the ground and why we can't go to a two megabyte block because it will create a hard for why hard for are dangerous why the core developers were kind of compliant with a hard for a year ago and why they're no longer supporting a hard for as far as you're concerned if you haven't been paying attention the last 12 months the core developers have some kind of an agenda and that's why they change their mind you haven't kept up with the fact that they spend nine months doing science on a hard for and came to a scientific conclusion that it's not feasible but if you were too busy running your business if you were too busy you know enjoying your millions of dollars people are you know similar people to you are telling you complete bullshit and you believe them and that's how you end up signing a document to run code you don't even know who is programming that code this is one of the arguments I got into with Eric and Eric is saying well I will run the code because I signed it I'm like what do you need you signed a document to run code that wasn't even created yet that this is even worse than the politicians that signed bills into Congress that they haven't even read this is like that signing bills into Congress before they even knew who was going to write the bill. So anyway so I got it that is hold the paper that's kind of my view on a situation if Eric would come out and be honest that it gets in the way of his business I would I would show him a little more respect and I've been pretty respectful to these guys in my opinion. And he is a very OG Bitcoin or starting Satoshi dies many other early Bitcoin companies so let's go to Blake Anderson. What's the question again? Eric what do you think about Eric Voorhe's view that Bitcoin could be replaced if the scaling situation does not resolve itself? I didn't even answer the question that is totally wrong but I'm not going to I'll yield my time. What were you going to say because I'm just going to I'm going to use everything that you said against you so go ahead and hamstring yourself here real quick. No I'm just saying Bitcoin can be replaced if Bitcoin fails no no crypto will ever be a store of value I mean the store of value proposition will be permanently gone. You can replace the that should the value transfer function with crypto, monero, light coin, whatever but there will never be a store of value because if Bitcoin can be replaced by an old coin so will the next best old coin be replaced by another old coin like there's only one chance to get the store of value function correct and that's Bitcoin that's the one and only chance. Okay well things being replaced let's talk about the idea of something being replaced well if you have root access to your computer you can replace whatever the hell you want you're going through and you're writing and replacing all kinds of stuff you don't have root access to a computer and you're not replacing code replacing something that you don't own is really really tough we actually have mechanisms that do that are called markets markets replace things based on you know is this not going well and it's something else you know going better. So if there's markets for replacements those things will happen if there's a market for small transactions and you know centralization that's probably going to happen if they're a market for Bitcoin and for decentralization and for holders yeah so you know hopefully that will continue to happen is there some agreement in the middle where we can make Bitcoin more like a you know scope bloat nightmare of a theory of all kinds of nonsense and stuff not really. Not really there is you know argument to moderation fallacy where it's like we're going to you know compromise between absolute truth to some third option and just totally go down the wrong road because we're not going to you know except this is a binary decision so we have a decision about the quality of Bitcoin do want to be you know faster and more centralized like a zero rate we want to be more you know scattered out and more operable in terms of robustness and failure protection like a like a five. If you don't know what a zero rate or a five rate are it might be something like to go and like look up what those are in terms of like basic technology because it's a really really really really good description for how centralization can make things really fast and unstable and how decentralization can maybe slow things down a little bit but it's maybe cool to chill out for a little while and make sure that the things that you build that have tons of value don't buy narrowly you know collapse and go to zero or get traded through the floor all of a sudden. So all of this coming into mind I think that what what's happening is that Eric sees that this middleman position that he has is really useful for Bitcoin and if that goes away that that you know that value proposition that he brings might go away and that's bad for his family it's not just bad for his family it's bad for any employee he has it's bad for a lot of people that depend on him so just to call him you know evil or bad or stupid because he's looking out for all these people that depend on him I don't think that's fair at all but at the same time as tone said it might be who of him to be honest about that. So the reason that he's picking this stuff but then again that you know that compromise this position in terms of it being very very strong and you know so he's in a tough spot basically Eric is and I can see the people like yeah if Bitcoin was zero rate it would go really really fast and it would be great but there's a lot of reasons for which we can't do that without going into the technicals and trying to stay at the top level of this is what you know centralization brings and this is what decentralization brings in a peer computer science example hopefully that can help people to understand that. Why you know segwit and getting it involved in Bitcoin and then waiting for a while before we see if we want to do a hard fork and have everybody on board and then give it done or if it's too contentious still need to wait for longer. Right. Oh just just one more out of that and you write Blake and this is what I mean what you call it. So the shape shift the shape shift business is completely that it does not need the bitcoins store of value function or store of value ability shape shift doesn't hold Bitcoin waiting for it to appreciate in fact shape shifts plan is to have the maximum number of useful old coins is possible. So in a way his business relies on complete this array and this function so yeah in order for his business to do better you don't want you know one crypto to rule the ball it literally eliminates his business and it's not about whether it's segwit or some other form for his business to thrive you literally need the least amount of stability across the board in the entire ecosystem. Maybe I mean maybe but also it's you know as technology goes forward things get replaced jobs get replaced automation now that we're in the ultra high speed technology his you know the value proposition was massive and then eclipse very very quickly that might just be something we have to get used to more and more I mean like who knows it's something to consider I guess. It's kind of conflict of interest kind of exist all over the ecosystem but it's weird that people only seem to bring it up the most ways like black stream talking about how all the developers are working on Bitcoin core and stuff like that even though I think chain code labs and MIT have just as much or if not more developers working on Bitcoin at least kind of conflicts of interest exist all over the ecosystem. Like you guys have a shapeshifter someone like black chain that info that wants a lot of small payments on chain because that's what their business model is built on and they're they've told all their investors and that they're going to be able to scale the coin to 100 or a thousand expeter tide at a really good tweet storm about this yesterday if anyone saw it was talking about black chain that info and Coinbase telling their investors they're going to scale on chain and now they just want to fire the core developers because they're not giving them what they want and all that kind of stuff. It's certainly a good reason to do what they're doing and I just want to remind everyone that raid zero for our purposes is where your data is fed out on many drives but if one of the drive fails you can't restore your data where raid five it's more like striping and you use maybe four out of the five drives and the fifth drive would be a backup and this way you have stripes on different drives in case they fail you can just sub in a new drive so better to hold the blockchain on one of those than one of the others. Let's go to the exit question choose an alt coin to replace Bitcoin and why tone base. Well I like I said the store of value function will never be replaced but as a day to day you know value transfer I think Litecoin is best suited for the job right now. Kyle tourney. Yeah I agree with tone I don't think it Bitcoin is going to be replaced but well to talk more about the article article specifically I wish I would have kind of pushed back against some of Eric's points because I don't think Bitcoin will be replaced because once again segway that will be enough for the short term and I don't think this hard for portion of segway two X is going to happen just because Bitcoin is kind of resistant to contentious hard for us by default and that's hard for seem like it will be kind of contentious and then if they do go forward with the hard fork then we're going to have like Bitcoin and Bitcoin enterprise and Bitcoin enterprise would seem to be the one that would be the alt coin especially if you know Paul sork and those guys get the drive chain stuff down then we could have like a big block drive chain which is lower security but that's what a much larger block size on the main chain would do anyways. So then we could have kind of like Bitcoin and Bitcoin enterprise on the same network which seemed to be much more valuable than two split networks for two different for the store value and payment use case in terms of alt coins that could replace Bitcoin. I don't really see I mean the Ethereum market kind of is high now but that's pretty much all these decentralized autonomous Ponzi schemes that are being launched on top of it so I imagine that will eventually go away once all these ICOs start dumping their ether on the market which may have already started a little bit. Maybe I mean Monero is kind of interesting because it's technically very sound from a privacy perspective but something like that might eventually be a side chain to Bitcoin or maybe Bitcoin will get confidential transactions and you can combine that with coin showing to get very good privacy. Yeah, like like coin is kind of like a test net for Bitcoin like a test net with more value at stake. Well, don't you want to involve more automotive words here if Bitcoin could get a carburetor to go with the drive shaft and the drive chain and everything. Let's go to Blake Anderson, choose an alt coin. God, I don't want to you know, pile on to anything else and nobody else has said because I really really don't want us to from this panel send a unified message that X will replace Bitcoin because that's just I don't think it's a terrible thing to say. But that being said, there's a lot of stuff that I haven't able to tell people about Charles Lee before because I didn't want to mess up his job at Coinbase. For example, there's been multiple times where I've had issues with Coinbase and Bitcoin communicating when I've been trying to buy food or something like that for my son probably could have planned better but like he's having a meltdown and like I'm having a really, really tough time with my special needs son and there's something going wrong. And Charles Lee personally himself like being the head of like support at Coinbase like personally took it upon himself to help me with my issues and make sure that like all of our could eat like that and stuff. So I've met Charles Lee several times in real life. I followed his work. He's not prone to hyperbole. He's got sense of humor and he's humble. I think that a light coin is is way, way, way ahead of other coins in terms of the commitment talent and humility of their devs and I don't think that a lot of other coins can compete. I don't think that I don't like manure or that I don't think that any other teams have like any competent devs or whatever. I just think that a light coin isn't a class of its own. But at the same time, they do have a memory intensive mining issue in terms of that can lead to centralization and then they also have a lot of development complexity right now because they have segwit and Bitcoin does not. So those are issues for like coin as well. But I think that the quality of people that are involved in any given project is a really, really big sign of how well it's going to be or not. I think that Charles Lee is one of the one of the nicest people I've ever met. So take that for what it's worth. Yeah, I can't just jump back in here real quick. So I'm sure that if you pull the world, you're going to get, you know, light coin as a huge favorite and monero as probably a distant second. And everything else is going to be a scramble. I mean, some crazy people will say a theory on that's not realistic, of course. But but but here's the thing that you have to realize. First of all, the light coin has a bigger mining centralization problem now. I think like one pool is like at 55% of all life coins. So they've already beyond the 51% threshold of a single pool. In addition, if you think Bitcoin mining is equipment decentralized, I think that bit main has a bigger percentage in selling equipment for life coin as they do on a percentage basis. And they do for Bitcoin. But if someone can fact check me out this, that would be great. So bit main is a major seller of life coin equipment. In fact, it's the bit main advantage for life coin to take over Bitcoin because they get to sell more shovels. And look, like coin already has segwit. So what the hell are we arguing about? Right. Bitcoin is going to collapse over segwit only to be taken over by the next best thing that are that literally got segwit in months ago. This is not happening, guys. We're going to get segwit. There's not going to be a hard fork. It's all going to go relatively smoothly. And it's not going to be a minor to really decide how smoothly we're going to go. But it's going to happen. Segwit, no hard fork. That's the reality. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. So there's too much blood sweat and tears went into it. It's not going. It's not leaving us. If there is a coin that will replace Bitcoin, it hasn't been written yet. It's likely something like mimble, wimble or Bitcoin 3. This is it. Something like that. It will come out later. And thanks so much to everyone for watching. We've got 515 live viewers. If everyone could give us a thumbs up in a share, tone things we can get over 700. I'm not sure. I don't know if the chattel handle it, but give it a drive. If you think we can break 700, there's 520 of you now. No pressure. Thumbs up and share. The record 710 on my channel. Let's see if we can break it on. The only wants is the record. Let's move on to issue 3. Alpha Bay temporarily out of service. The dark net marketplace alpha bay was offline for more than 2 days, making many believe that they had been exit scanned or perhaps acquired by law enforcement. The administrators posted that they had been doing maintenance, but we have heard that one before. Blake Anderson, what's the future of dark net markets? Will we continue to see a single centralized site like alpha bay or will we see decentralized options like open bizarre? What was once called dark market? Well, let's just go into conjecture mode here. I think that it's tough when you are the law. Imagine that you're the law. Imagine that you're the cops and you want to freeze out all these political violations that are going on because you can't have that. Now, you're the law and you want to shut down all of these ultra free markets. But when you do more of them pop up and generally the ones that pop up are doing things differently, especially in terms of why the last one failed. So it's not a very easy thing to cut the head off of the hydra. I hate to speculate about this because it's really not cool in terms of this is a very, very real and emotional situation. But some people were saying, you know, it went down for long maintenance. Maybe they are, you know, maybe they're down. Maybe they're not coming back. Maybe Ross Albrecht helped people in the government go and shut them down with the information that he knew. And maybe he's going to get a Frank Abagnale like deal, like catch me if you can, and he'll be able to not be in jail so much and stuff like that. Now, I think that that is really, really deep into the what if beg and actually ask people were talking about that free Ross tweeted about something. So I assume that was Lynn probably his mom. So maybe like maybe maybe don't go like that that far into the what if beg because that might be you know kind of hurtful to the people that are actually really hurting and stuff. Also Alphabet came back up. It hasn't been in that town. So I don't know if going so far deep into the what if beg in terms of like making people say like, hey, that's you know, it's a member of my family. I don't think they would do that. Plus it's not really, you know, you don't have any information like all this conjecture leading to somebody having to wait. And I think in terms of, you know, what were the consequences of this discussion. I think that that was kind of a, you know, maybe not the the best way to handle conjecture, but I think Kyle has a lot more information about this story that's not just fluff. So I'll turn over to him. Yeah, I don't think there's any reason to connect this to Ross old breath. It's just because they all ran dark markets. Doesn't mean they know each other that hang out in some chat room. Kyle Torbj. Yeah, so it still seems pretty unclear what's going on here. They've alphabet has had a bunch of similar situations in the past where they kind of go dark for nine or more hours and then suddenly they're back online later. So this could be another thing like that. But I that this one is longer than the past as far I can tell. But in terms of other stuff, you know, making these these sorts of possibility of an exit scam going away in the future. There is open bizarre, which you mentioned, which just recently integrated tours. So now I'm sure there are a bunch of people on the darknet markets that are at least considering moving over there once that's released. And then basically each each vendor will basically have their own alphabet kind of and then there'll be a central search engine where people can search for whatever listed goods they're looking for online. So then instead of it basically gets rid of the exit scam or the market runs away with the money, but then you have the vendors can still do their own exit scams, which happens a lot. That's where they build up really good reputation over a long period of time. And then just kind of get everyone to finalize their orders early and then take all the money and run. So they exit their reputation as a lot of people like to say. And then there's a lot of stuff overall that will make the darknet markets more user friendly in general coming out like tumble bit and lightning network where like with tumble bit, you can basically have instant transactions that are much more private than on chain transactions. It's kind of more like the original vision of digital cash from the 90s where it's completely completely anonymous basically. And it all happens off chain. And then another thing that could eventually be interesting is hedging to us dollars with Bitcoin, because I think I think so growth even offered this option. It might have been part of Ross obricks downfall because apparently he was offering the option to for the vendors to hedge their Bitcoin to us dollars and what he was doing in the background was basically selling Bitcoin for us, D on Mt. Gox back in like the Wild West days of Mt. Gox. So that would be another very good feature for these darknet markets, which is still a very important part of the Bitcoin ecosystem or the like it or not. That's always what they used to say about sheet marketplace that the service was fantastic right until that last weekend when they exit scanned tone, vase, your thoughts. Well, so they did come back right. They are back online right now. And no one wants to need Bitcoin. So look, this would have been their best chance to exit scam right the fact that they came back and everyone still have their Bitcoin. I mean, it makes them it makes it less likely that they're going to exit scam voluntarily right now. And the risks have always been there right so you every day whether it's a gambling website whether it's a darknet market website any website whether it's Poloniacs right any website that is a custodian of other people's Bitcoins every day the sea level management of that company wakes up and makes a decision whether it's worth it for them to keep the business running or whether it's worth it for them to take all of the crypto in their possession. And run away with it and this is also true of traditional gambling websites before Bitcoin even existed right this is kind of how it is a little harder at a bank. But in these kinds of markets I mean that's the decision they have to make now what you're down for nine hours unexpectedly you're expected to lose a bunch of business. So if alpha day was seriously planning to exit scam they would not have gone down for nine hours and then come back with everyone's coins they would have exit scam yesterday if they were planning on doing that in the future now that's a voluntary exit scam there are also involuntary exit scams and that if the authorities are closing in. They might just shut it down and keep the Bitcoin if they get hacked for let's say 20% of their people's Bitcoin holdings they may be more interested in taking the 80% remaining and disappearing then dealing with the consequences of informing people that 20% are gone right if you're going to get like 80% of the blame for losing 20% of the coins you might as well lose 100% of the coins. And take 100% of the blame right I mean it's like that 80 20 rule and yeah this is the business that we're in will decentralized versions of these markets eventually come online probably they probably come online but they don't even need to be decentralized the number the money needs to be decentralized Bitcoin in a way created decentralized money but now you just need to decentralize holding the money. So perhaps someone will stop up and be a third party middleman that where every Bitcoin is in a way of altissac so even though let's say a dark net market website is centralized with their servers they can provide the option to decentralize all the time. So the goal of the goal in the individual's storage with a third party multisig that could be another dark net site right so for example to competing dark net market sites can actually go into a partnership to in a way I mean I'm just speculating here right so to dark net market sites that are competing with each other they could actually serve as a check on each other by being that third party. So let's say alpha being their biggest competitor and the user of that site all three of them have a key so if one of the two dark if one of those two competitors screws up it's very easy for you to take your money and go to the competitor because the competitor has a multi sick key holding on because you're thinking of going over to them in case your current I guess dealer screws up. There are lots of creative ways to go about protecting users funds that do not require complete decentralization of the market itself like open buzzard is doing but how do you know the market how do you know the two markets are the same person or that they wouldn't just collaborate to steal your money you just know yeah right I mean I agree I agree but that but it helps it helps right. So like I said there are you're right these are additional risks and you can choose your own competitor you're right it could be one in the same it's possible you can also rotate competitors and yes they could also be one in the same right I'm just saying that there could be safeguards without decentralizing the market itself right because decentralized in the market what open buzzard is doing may or may not be the same person. So it's not going to be too inefficient for what needs to be done because like look the money the medium exchange Bitcoin is decentralized and it's very difficult and it's very expensive. So the way to do it is to perhaps have another middle man and it doesn't have to be another dark market site it could be you know a bit of a trusted middle man to act as a third party that was also anonymous right but I'm just saying like you don't have to go to the to the ultimate option of decentralizing the store because that may not be inefficient and a bit of an overkill to get the job done. People are looking for here with the main service to alpha bay and those kind of dark markets are providing is escrow basically right and then an open bizarre you have a market of escrow agents basically that all compete against each other like anyone can sign up in you an escrow agent without having to like develop their own website. Right but you're literally running the store on your own server right so everyone's running the store on their own server on their own computer and that store can only be functioning is always a computer is functioning so it's like a Bitcoin node. I imagine it would be similar to I mean Russell brick ran his Russell brick ran silk road in a DPS so I imagine there'll be some kind of service to be able to do that there used to be this. On your website called freedom hosting where anyone can launch their website whenever they want. Hosted stores in the 2.0 version of open bizarre you can have a hosted store that wouldn't have to run on your computer all the time there's another issue in that hold once I get another issue with the multi-sig in that a lot of these marketplaces are have already integrated that nobody uses it. So maybe I'll start maybe a few more exits camps in the start because you also have to realize that you also have to like. You have to realize your client help right I mean I've I've literally some of these people called me I've called me up consulting services in order to. You know educate them how to use a Bitcoin ATM machine over the phone right as they're working up the one so i mean a lot of these people are then there's sophisticated enough to like use an eBay but they may not be sophisticated enough to run their own servers so you have to also keep in mind with your client help. It's also worth it because they were down for nine hours and they came back that proves they're not going to exit scam they could still exit scan they could have just had a maintenance problem that was unavoidable. Kyle do you have more on that topic. I was just going to agree with Tony that whatever open bizarre does whether they're building it for the dark market or not for the dark markets to use it's going to be a has has to be very user friendly I agree but it's already. Very not user friendly to have to you know use tails or some operating system like that and use go through tour and it's really slow know that kind of stuff but from what I've seen alphabets website is very slick it's probably one of the better hidden services out there in terms of you user experience. Alright let's move on to the exit question exit question keeping Ross old bricked in prison for the rest of his life is having a real and direct effect on the spread of dark net markets limiting their use and providing a prohibitive example that is making others change their minds and turn their backs on millions of dollars yes or no Blake Anderson. Well Ross was really special in that he had morals and he had principles so that was special about him what he did in the technology understanding required to do it is not special like there's a lot of people that are all coming up to the same path the same rate of speed and wasting taxpayer money to keep him in a cage for the rest of his life isn't going to do a goddamn thing and I still I'm still so angry about it that I lose sleep over it honestly. Kyle Torpe. I yeah I think there's still a bunch of markets out there that you can use to make a point about someone was asking that chat about the hedging mechanism for price volatility for the dark net markets I wasn't talking about something like circle or uphold or traditional exchange or sell your Bitcoin for dollars was more talking like a smart contract basically or two parties put their money into it and then one party goes along US dollar one goes short and then you can. Basically hedge against Bitcoin's price volatility in a decentralized manner where your money still the value holding is still yours and no one can really take it from you. Tony Vase. I'm just going to second what Blake said I mean he kind of said it perfectly. I would also like to unfortunately note that Ross has been moved to a maximum security prison we're not sure why he's been moved he doesn't seem like a threat seems more like a boy scout. Well that's where he's always been MCC and no they said that they moved him to another system or another prison I'm not sure. All really on his Twitter feed at first they didn't know where he'd gone at all. So you know how that's great moving on to issue for 50 million dollar Bitcoin fund a former manager from Bane Capital has created a 50 million dollar Bitcoin fund made up of rich families from Latin America who according to one advisor cannot store their savings in the local currency because it is not smart. The fund will be mostly locked in until 180 days after the next Bitcoin having in 2020. Is this a smart investment will we see more Bitcoin based funds like this in the future. Let's go to tone Vase. I mean is it a smart investment I'm going to say no because you know they're also buying. Crazy stuff like ripple and Z cash and Ethereum so it's not a smart investment with 50% of it is in Bitcoin so if you hold your money long enough in there your Bitcoin will make up for it. It was a couple of things I mean who wrote this article my my code that because you are actually one of the few writers of coin coin that's that actually like. So it was something interesting like he said in a second paragraph he might not have a full understanding of how funds work or just a weird quote it says here that the senior manager from Bane Capital Roberto Ponzi and I'm quoting here is helping to raise 50 million with the purpose of buying cryptocurrencies for family offices. That wording seems a little strange to me so family offices are basically hedge funds that do not take outside money so they're called family offices right so it's either you know some rich guy managing his family's money like you're not basically as long as you're not managing strangers money. You are considered a family office it can be a family's money can be your own money like I'm a family office like I'm a trader if you're an independent trader you are family office now if you're if you're managing enough money. You can then you know allow I mean you're not really a you could allow others to also manage that money on your behalf and then you become your family office acts as a high net worth individual so if he's focused on family offices they could be an individual or literally like a pool together of family money. He's looking to get some of that money into his fund and hold the tokens there now there is a minimum hold on on some of the tokens like if you invest over two and a half million dollars you can have you you you are allowed to sell you you only locked in for half a year it sounds like if you're investing less than two and a half million you're locked in. Until the year 2020 after the having which is in a way kind of ridiculous you're basically handing your money to some guy to decide which crypto is to buy on your behalf which I guess a similar to handing your money to some guy who's got my stocks on your behalf so which you're basically doing is you're betting on this guy's ability to pick winners and losers in the crypto space and considering he is a good guy. He is buying out like literally outright bullshit like ripple which is probably the worst on that list right if I have to rank his list of the coins that he's going to buy I would say ripple is the worst a theory I must probably second the Z-tash is probably third and a life coin is not an invention. Oh no sorry like one is mentioned right on dashes mentioned oh god okay so here's the ranking of how stupid this fund is ripple is the worst of the wall shoot dash or a theory man that's a hard choice that's a really hard choice I would say dashes the second dumbest a theory on the third then Z-tash and then the only responsible investments will be Bitcoin and light coin. Obviously mostly Bitcoin so I would not trust this guy with a single Satoshi to invest the money so that's kind of my opinion on it is just someone that has a lot of connections and a status in the financial industry who is basically wants to collect fees by investing other people's money and things he probably doesn't understand. This is totally normal in the world of hedge funds this is totally normal on Wall Street at investment the reason why I'm okay with this is because he's targeting high network individuals who will always hand their money over to some investor who will lose it for them and this is like standard this is what it is this is what BC's do as well right so it's. Every now and then the blind squirrel aka the manager manages to get lucky and these investors make money but in reality there are no different than a guy trading from his whole and he'll lose 90% of time. All right tone doesn't like it so we know it's going to make a fortune let's go to Blake Anderson. Well you know I think that it probably is a pretty good investment and it's a good investment in terms of people that don't have the tech savvy ability to go on their computer and just buy Bitcoin because obviously yeah I mean do that the the last middle men between you and what you're doing as a general rule the exponentially better things get like if you're buying drugs from somebody you can find out who his dealer is it's good for you to go do that not that I want to go out and get better drugs for a better price but it's a good example in terms of cutting out a middle man huge advantage right there. So when they are going to take a basket of people's money and buy different things you know I think support of all things that are buying now but at least 50% Bitcoin they're locked in it along horizon which is what I talk about all the time don't buy on a short and more horizon and lose your hat. I think the people that invest will do well and I think that their options in terms of storing value outside of this are sub optimal so I'm I think this is fantastic overall is it perfect no absolutely not it could be done poorly and things could go wrong but I think that's a good example. I think that if done right it's a very big value proposition to the people of that locality. Hey Blake let me ask you a question this could be like a second exit question so I'll comment on Kyle will answer it as well. Do you think that this fund will outperform just Bitcoin by the having of 20 points. Oh I know I don't think it will and that's why I said it's a good investment for people that don't know how to buy raw Bitcoin just just Bitcoin. Right but one should be wouldn't it be make more sense for you to simply find another manager that will only buy Bitcoin. If that's available it may be a better opportunity yeah for sure I mean the the closer you can get to eliminating any type of middleman that needs to you know be fed lunch in terms of the proceedings I mean yeah you do better. You also want to trust someone that has funds already presumably this guy with this track record at Bane isn't going to run out on you maybe the Bitcoin only fund is more shady maybe you're better in the safe. Of course no but those are different risks right I'm just talking about only investment risk the value proposition here I mean the risk of the alpha be risk is the same here as without the Bane right I mean he can just take all of those cryptos and run away right they're the crypts he's putting his name on the line he has history the alpha big guy you know hacker. I know I know let me just don't know that's true that's true but like you know big burn was a name also right but but the the risk of a hack like Bitfinex is always there the risk of a guy with a name like guys with names never you know scams people before right Bernie made off right so the guy with the name I mean those risks are the same across the board right we're we're fact like that risk isn't going anywhere the investment is like the the question that you I mean look he's going to high net worth individuals who should be a little smarter than your average guy and the question is will this guy from Bane capital outperform Bitcoin on long term by trading Bitcoin and more. I want to jump in for one one quick second one of the thing one of the mistakes the people make is trying to always push the absolute optimal trade instead of trying to make trades which are risk management you can make a good investment on so be careful of criticizing something because it's not the maximum optimal investment that you can make I think that's a hole that some people fall into I wanted to throw that it really quick. All right let's go to Kyle Torpe what do you think about this issue I definitely agree with tone when he talks about it just it makes a lot more sense just to hold Bitcoin and invest in this fund I mean as he said like what is this Bane guy even know about crypto currencies at all how long has even fallen the space if he's investing in dash I had a feeling it hasn't been that long. Like and all of these like so I've been reading more about drive chains lately and Paul and the guys that are working on that are pretty much done with it and it's going through the mailing list now like the blind merge mining stuff with the last thing they wanted to fix for like the main skeptics like Peter Todd who's kept saying it's not secure. So now if that's pretty much done we can have a big black drive chain which gets rid of the need for Litecoin dash and all the micro transaction coins we can have mingle winble eventually which is which will be much more private and scalable and even though it doesn't seem that the room is useful at all RSK is going to launch their hybrid drive chain federated chain later this year so it's like what are once you have those three. Chains like the micro transactions the privacy and the smart contracts as side chains if they're even needed I just don't see what role any of these all coins are going to play so like even though even if you want to say that drive chains aren't as secure as the Bitcoin main chain which they're probably not but policy pretty convincing arguments as to why they're pretty much they're at least nearly as secure as the main chain. That was my treat I thought but all the altcoins will serve their purpose of dumping their money back into Bitcoin. I like the that there will be blood you know like Bitcoin is like the big like sick more tree and all the resistance all the altcoins and stuff and then people are like yeah you look the altcoins are going up a little bit and you can see when they all pump back into the main chain and they all go down uniformly and it's like I drink your milkshake I love those. Sure it's when people point out. Drink it up let's move on to the exit question is it better to hodl or to trust a fund what should you do with your Bitcoin when they become more valuable Lake Anderson. You just definitely hold hold hold squad get real down like a ball and just you know. Hodel you know any any type of middle man is not the best like I was saying before and middle men in terms of this new decentralized digital storage of value there almost exponentially worse than they were previously in history so really really really really tamper your expectations in terms of what is safe and what you're going to get back whenever there's anybody standing between. I guess that's kind of my you know hodl yourself but if you can't do that don't do it wrong try to get somebody that's an expert or educate yourself and you know and hold the right way don't don't get your stuff stolen. Kyle Torby. Yeah I don't have a problem with people investing in funds where the big ones are held by a third party necessarily like that's that's still a way to use Bitcoin where you don't have to. You can do anything on chain and you can just speculate on the price. Obviously the best case scenario is that you're holding your own Bitcoin and like a treasure somewhere but some people simply aren't technically competent enough to do that. So that these third party custodians still have some sort of role to play tone ways. Well since my answer is never simple I'm just going to break it up into trenches so the best way is to hold yourself. The second your second best option is to let somebody hold on for you just like like what GVTC is doing like you're just they're just holding your Bitcoin for you. The third best option is to find that middle man that's holding it for you that is also actively trading but only Bitcoin. Your fourth best option is or like now you're getting the bad options is a middle man that is holding not just Bitcoin but other cryptocurrencies of your choice. And your absolute worst option at number five is a fund manager that is actively trading Bitcoin and all so I kind of break it down badly. My message to you is to not put all your eggs in one basket maybe you're really rich in your Latin America and you're going to invest in this fund. Instead of putting 30 million into this fund put 10 million in this fund 10 million and another fund 10 million and another fund that way if somebody runs off with your funds at least you still have some of them. For people that have a large amount of Bitcoin maybe you have Bitcoin on a paper wallet and now it's worth hundreds of thousands of dollars guess what you can afford a treasure or a ledger or a safe deposit box. It's okay to take your investment that was once small and maybe it was safe under your bed and to move it into a nice safe deposit box. That's a good use of your money. It's a smart idea you can also have multiple copies of the key. You don't have to rely on one place but yes you need to break it up you need to move it around spread it out maybe break open those paper wallets make smaller paper wallets hide them in more places. Think of the compartments of the Titanic like the compartments of the Titanic they were foolproof for the Titanic and they can be foolproof for you. But those are different risks. I'm just talking about specifically economic risk not more. Even so I don't think it's that bad an idea for a very rich person to trust trust coin base or Zappo or this fund. If you're not technically strong and you don't necessarily want to be technically strong you don't want to take these risks even if you did take some consulting services or you know you read some manuals I mean there are things you can do but trusting into one of these things trusting into a technical guy but don't just trust one technical guy trust a couple. I also wanted to get really quick on what tone said he was talking about financial risk versus other types of risk and really all risks are intermarried in terms of when you take a full stack approach to looking into something is going to work or not. So I think that it's valuable what tone is saying you can break down risk in a different categories but also there's a version of risk which you can take you know the risk management policies that you could use to mitigate various forms of risk and then tie them all together. Bitcoin has done that which is why so many people are like the fundamental principles of this network being able to verify the chain and having a decentralized are important versus people that are like risk management can be better just you know pigeon hold over here we got about financial risk management and the other risk management will just go away which isn't really true it really is all married together and you can consider various information in terms of risk management mitigation but it does all link together and so having that big wide road map is extremely important. And I know tone knows that but what but just based on what he said I wanted to clarify that. Yeah, I sure I sure look like the people know that like there is completely different risk like like when I talk about investing like picking your investment manager and having them be active or not active. I mean that's completely outside of the risk involved as a coin custodian they're completely I mean yeah they're together but they're sometimes like you that one one of them is always assumed and but but you still have to like even if you assume that risk of theft of your coins you still have to pick your investment wisely based on how what they're going to do with that coin or what based on what they say they're going to do with that coin. And maybe I could bring this you know the real little bit the this risk thing that I was talking about where would this manifest itself well for example somebody was like I can make giant crushing arbitrage gains off of these two exchanges by trading back and forth because the price differences are different and it's a no risk situation I'm going to make a I'm going to strike a series of matching deals and I'm just going to continually push my holdings up but they didn't take into consideration the risk of exit scams on either one or both of those exchanges which is a huge risk it's not a risk of some of your money being compromised the risk of all of the risk of all of your money becoming unavailable. So in terms of taking the real world risk in terms of situations both financially in terms of individual access because actual physical access to any given system is the biggest security concern ever always will be and then you can take other risks down from there. So it's very very very easy to get into risk management to the shallow level and to think that you really have everything mastered and then to finally open up this door into the more wide category of risk management they go no I made really bad investments in hurt myself. So be careful in that regard. Don't be like we got it has a thousand bit coins on his phone or had a thousand bit coins on his phones spoiler alert that's from the future hasn't happened yet. Go ahead Kyle but we got to move to the next issue soon. Yeah I just wanted to ask Tony and Blake what they think with in terms of like all this risk that exists on all these exchanges what does that mean for like the real Bitcoin price because this is the risk associated with these exchanges factor into the price on all the different exchanges. Like do we know the real Bitcoin price. Yeah I mean that's a very very very good question a whole bunch of risk there's the risk that Bitcoin is going to not be tradable as easily in the United States because a coin base is going to shit the bed and close down if it starts to go up or down really fast. Yeah these are huge huge huge huge limiting factors to the price and adoption of Bitcoin and this is also why Bitcoin has a huge advantage over other coins that people don't seem to know don't have a coin base or don't have a direct on ramp. So these things can be seen as negative or positive but yeah I mean in terms of the risk represented by not being able to trade on one day or you know doing certain things that you can't count on like okay I can't trade on coin base now I have to go on to local bitcoins.com sign up for account make one try to find a buyer try to go find him like that's a lot of stuff to try to do in a short period of time because your preferred method is not operational. Those types of things are really really slowing Bitcoin down and the more that we can make it so that the exchanges are secure and you don't have to worry about them as much which I don't know how we're going to do that but you know it may be feasible somehow and then if coin base you know it stops shooting the bed in terms of going down when there's lots of trades those things would allow the community to grow a lot faster in all directions in pretty much my objective opinion. Yeah but but as far as the price is concerned it's really hard to say look coin base is like the lower is the cheapest the cheapest coins you'll ever buy is on coin base right so if coin base is out of the equation the price of Bitcoin will both slightly go up right because they're providing you the cheapest Bitcoin like local Bitcoin's price is way harder way higher and it's harder for those people to source those bitcoins so the liquidity will get smaller but as I said the price is going to be a lot more expensive than the price of Bitcoin. So if the liquidity gets smaller the price may actually increase because of it it's just like for example let's say a major exchange gets hacked and you know another 100,000 or 200,000 Bitcoin gets stolen it's not easy moving those bitcoins when you steal 200,000 to 300,000 Bitcoin it's not exactly easy to move that Bitcoin kind of falls out of circulation and the people that have just had their Bitcoin hacked a lot of the time. So a lot of these people are not going to scramble and they're going to try to buy as much Bitcoin as they can because they know that they may miss out and then Bitcoin goes up and then they won't have any Bitcoin left right so a lot of these hacks and a lot of these exchanges going down is actually a positive for the price of Bitcoin going up. We've got 583 viewers if everyone could give us a thumbs up and a share I'm not sure we're going to break the record today though. I like Coinbase a lot I've used Coinbase a ton I think that Coinbase has a big value proposition I think that when there's a lot of activity they could do better at scaling but I don't mean to like you know slap Coinbase when they've done so much for the community and for me personally like use Coinbase they're great just you know have a backup if there's going to be a huge volume spike because they don't seem to really really really prioritize scaling the way that some people feel they should. They're likely also the source of the local Bitcoins Bitcoin moving on to issue five Bitcoin 55 thousand dollars a major Wall Street strategist has weighed in on Bitcoin and he thinks it could rise to 20,000 to 50 thousand dollars in the next five years saying so in his report entitled a framework for valuing Bitcoin as a substitute for gold. Goldie says is on its way out Bitcoin is on his way in Kyle Torpey do you agree with his analysis are you incredibly bullish for Bitcoin in the long term. I was press point is it I mean it could happen if you look at all the reasons to hold Bitcoin like you pointed out the digital go digital gold use case and then you have the potential for people to use it for like basically a replacement for offshore bank accounts where you just hiding your wealth from taxation especially when better privacy features are added to Bitcoin. I mean those two use cases alone are worthy of a trillion trillion of dollars in terms of a market cap for Bitcoin. So it's definitely possible. I don't know what the percentage likelihood of that would be maybe you could estimate that based on the current Bitcoin price compared to the eventual market cap that would happen. But yet it's possible. It's got a tone phase. So look I've been saying this for years especially the gold versus Bitcoin part and so there's nothing you hear like none of the details of his analysis were given as to what exactly Bitcoin does that gold doesn't and I talk about this in my presentations now for years and it's been a big deal. So basically the the ability to transfer Bitcoin I mean gold was used to as a transfer of value cross border and gold is no longer useful for that because of metal detectors and the press. Not only that but the amounts of paper gold that are circulating also make it so that the network even when it does work for trading gold is operational that it's not correct anyway. I don't mind I don't mind paper trading I have this debate with Andy Hoffman if you were a move paper trading of gold it's going to be diamonds. I'm saying that you're trading I just said that it has an impact. Sure but no I mean I really the analysis that Bitcoin does have better properties than gold and but throw in a value like 55,000 by 2022. Like I don't know if he's just guessing that number I'm sure he has some kind of a model and he put it a bunch of parameters and that's the number that it's spread out but to me is just a guess I mean he's just guessing. And oh it actually says 20,000 to 55,000 but of course the headlines have to pick the higher range and not the lower range right. But I don't know what price Bitcoin is going to be in 2022 I try not to guess that far ahead if I am going to guess further up I'm going to have some kind of a technical chart and I'm going to say based on probabilities of technical analysis this is the price I think has the most likely probability. Now a lot of these analysts are also doing this stuff on like stocks and they say well based on projections of sales and revenues we think the value of the stock should be so and so by so and so day that is outside of technical analysis but that kind of analysis is very very difficult to do with Bitcoin because Bitcoin is so speculative that it's hard to factor in the speculation aspect of Bitcoin. So I agree with him on the fact that it's taken over the properties of gold but I mean she could have said any number there he could have said 50,000 he could have said 60,000 could have said 100,000 he could have said 25,000 I mean that's just an arbitrary guess but I'm sure the report reads very well as long as you don't take the actual numbers. It's a very hard to use. But I like the sound of 55,000 it's a nice round number has lots of 5 and plus it would ruin the headline if it said Bitcoin analyst predicts chart. Let's go to Blake Anderson. Well yeah I mean I agree with a lot of what Tillin said some people think that Bitcoin will really really really take off when the rubber hits the road in terms of the old system falling apart. It's a very very rapid speed if there's something like a comics default if there's a comics default and people start pausing trading because the price is going up and down so much and then that systemic pausing of stepping back and waiting for it to unfold causes huge splits in the value of currency and materials. That's not good that would be a huge disaster that would cause massive amounts of flight into Bitcoin. That could cause 55,000 dollar Bitcoin if it spurred a continual deflationary spiral in which it kept pulling more factors into people holding buying waiting holding and buying. But short of that it's going to be it'll be a while before that happens. Compaying it to gold I think that a good comparison for gold and Bitcoin is male to email to pretty simple comparison that a lot of people understand obviously the value proposition of email is pretty easy to understand versus the value proposition of physical tangible manipulation across. Who knows where just the other day somebody that I know was like I got a birthday card from my grandma and it never came. That's unfortunate like of course there's cash inside of it because it's from the whole person and just like the odds of somebody finding out what happened to that card are not good. So think about the value proposition in terms of how much more popular email is going to be in the future than male and then Bitcoin and markets and utilities should match those macro factors and continue to push Bitcoin up. As it replaces categorically inferior methods of a transacting value Bitcoin is a very very very smart invention. This is very very good for one thing people keep trying to like apply it to other things but it works really well for what it's doing so keep that in mind. The male is an incredible invention though I don't imagine how they can do it without horses. Kyle Torpy already what I don't really have anything to it's not true you didn't already go we started with tone let's go back to tone the price of Bitcoin this time next week higher or lower. Oh man this is this is a little bit of a tough spot I'm going to say at this time next week is going to be about the same I've been bullish on Bitcoin and forever push the worst of all I know it's bad I think it will be about the same my my for the first time ever I'm actually going to push on this one. I think we're in a we need another week to kind of get our bearings over what's going to happen on first one quick comment on the Blake said I think that a complete you know economic implosion around the world I don't think that would be good for Bitcoin I don't I think that specifically a comment default well yes specifically a comment default sure but you'd be surprised how few gold bugs to really are. And I don't think that would drive the Bitcoin price to 55,000 dollars but but but 2008 and worse style economic collapse I don't think it would be good for Bitcoin because back then it crashed the price of gold as well when the economy crashes on the stock market crashes and all these new crashes people lose their jobs and what enough people start to lose their jobs they don't exactly have the money to go out and buy Bitcoin. They will food becomes more important necessities become more important not speculative you know crypto currencies. I think you're thinking about this from too much of an individualized basis think about nation states if you're talking about more than a comment default and things are starting to really really go rough you don't have the option of taking your scooter anymore you have to take your car or like you have to you have to do what's absolute best in terms of what you can do so what nation states are going to do to try to pay bills. If they're going to liquidate storage of value this really dense platinum play the gold silver and they're going to want to acquire things that are easy to store they are expensive to move things like Bitcoin so I think that I don't know I mean that if there is a huge collapse that the nation states have no money right there no one either they will start the power on when it collapsed so that's just unfounded completely. The power on obviously because they can create power internally there's a lot of cold behind out there you can't power internally unless you have lots and lots of natural energy solutions I mean power was worth a lot of money on the power and the question. Higher or lower Blake Anderson higher or lower. God I think that what tone set is very very spot on I agree with tone I think it's going to be a push for now but you know what let's just go let's just say higher it's going to go higher because this episode is going to do really well and people are going to go out there and they're going to know that you know I'm right and that everything else is wrong. You're saying you're saying higher now we know you're a push Kyle give us more than a push come on. I think we're going to see a lot of uncertainty for the next few months as we wait for Segwit to X and the user activated software. I think we'll get Segwit by August 1st but then I think the problem will be whether or not these Bitcoin companies are going to try to hard fork and create Bitcoin enterprise all coin and that could cause a lot of problems I think Bitcoin like I said before is resistant to contentious hard for so maybe it won't happen but I mean you're seeing threats to hard for this is like the 4th or 5th after. XT classic and limited so but this one has I mean all these companies signed a pledge and they're some of the biggest component companies in this space but I think some of the exchanges are not signed on like bitfinex and cracking I think and even I'm not sure and I remember if Coinbase signed on but those are really some of the most important entities because they will if there is a hard fork attempt they will likely list both coins and then we'll see what the market will be. The market would pick up to be clear what pushes it's between 2500 and 2600 on it's that. I like what Kyle is giving me the more uncertainty now we're going down I'm going to go with higher still although there is the fork fear starting to get very real as we hit the July 21st that's when Segwit to X post would be online and then of course the August 1st UASF. So we peaked around 614 viewers thanks to everyone for giving us a thumbs up and a share we're going to move on to predictions or a story of the week tone vase are you ready with a prediction or a story of the week. I'll just talk about price real quick and I'll make it short I'm only going to use the daily chart I'm still working on my resolutions I finally got a laptop by the way I hope I have much better quality around my mind not nothing is freezing but but so we pulled back today and we bounce right off the 50 day moment average ideally you want to stay above the 50 day moment average but it will be perfectly fine if we fall a little bit lower to around 2400 on get FedEx. So if we fall to 2400 on get FedEx it's a reasonable place for rebound so this yellow one right here has thrown me from bullish back into cash and neutral as far as the trading position goes so my current view on the environment right here on today's big down day is time to go neutral time to go to get a cash and then you wait will the next few days show us signs of a bear or will the next few days start showing us signs of a bull market again and we'll see. All right let's go to Kyle Torby for a prediction or a story of the week. So I'll have some op-eds coming out soon about a segway to X and drive chains and other topics I've been thinking about so look up for those next week start early starting next week probably on Bitcoin magazine. I'll also take this time to plug my newsletter that I've been putting out past few weeks I read all the news every day and it also includes my own stories anything I publish and any other story that I think is worth reading. And you can find that on Kyle Torby.com. Good stuff Kyle let's go to Blake Anderson. It looks like in chat the Max Kaiser pseudonym wanted to hear more about me and tone going into the what if bag about economic collapse so I mean I get fair enough. My story of the week I'll talk about what I think will happen if there is some type of systemic economic collapse and where I think that would come from if it did happen. What are the risks of it happening right now I mean not not not very high but the risks of an eventual comics default coming from inflationary policy and you know possibly more wars or getting involved in more foreign theaters of conflict. Eventually there'll be a spot where our economy will be inflating and moving too fast to be able to normally and regularly afford things like energy food weapons and hard goods and things like that. And that's when the physical storage of value markets start to move away from the currency markets and we start to get to like our runaway inflationary spiral kind of the opposite of the runaway deflationary spirals that we try to see and instantiate into Bitcoin. So people talk kind of all the time about what's going to happen if there is some type of a systemic collapse that starts going through the old system. And what I think is going to happen is that again I think that large nation states are going to try to sell you know concentrated storage of value in order to pay the bills to try to keep the lights on. And for that reason I think that people that are holding you know gold and things like that for the specific situation that they're thinking about I think it's going to be just like when traders are taken out by a big Judas candle because they had shorts or stops or longs or whatever they had and somebody sees how most of the market is going. So I think that the big you know whale will come in and take them out I think that nation states are going to do a similar thing in terms of hard storage of value if there is systemic economic collapse. Now what are the odds of systemic economic collapse right now. I mean I it's nothing I'm going to talk about like it's happening right now but I think that if we were to move more towards that level of instability and continue to push that 150% debt to GDP ratio that all that does become a real issue. I think that people should talk about it more not in terms of fear porn it's going to happen now but what are the factors that we call it to tip and what are the initial you know series of fallout that you could map it into different areas and I just wanted to ask Tony the quick what do you think about all that supposition. I'm not expecting a comics collapse like it's it's a no one's interest right like even if there is you know some hedge fund that's going to profit from a comics collapse you know a couple of guys and suits are going to show up and they're going to tell the cause would be a tragedy of the commons type cause it wouldn't be individuals trying to manipulate it for their own good. If that wasn't clear. Look I mean everyone will always take the money right there is always one currency that you can move like this is why the moment you think that there's not enough gold they just offer these people the difference in US dollars throw them an extra water to percent on top and you're good to go. You know no one really cares to hold that they have physical goal right like just a few libertarians. Like like none of these people like all of these big players like all of these people trading thousands and thousands of. Contracts on gold and silver not care about physical delivery they just care about making more US dollars right there no different. System is so that people don't care about delivery I think that's an important distinction to make though. But the system will always be solid because they can always print more dollars right to be able to install that instead to push a comics default. But but that's the thing right when you always take the money you always take the money in the least inflationary currency which is the US dollar so you can always get them to do it. By which metric is the US dollar the least inflationary by it having the most responsible central bank. Is that like M3 and then it doesn't matter because a person with a gun comes along it takes your bit coin away and takes your dollars away and takes your gold away. You get everything matter in the future is being physically fit knowing martial arts having those little whiskey bottles to trade with as well as rolls of toilet paper. There's your future currency little whiskey bottles toilet paper you're going to try to trade with a whole bar of gold let me give you some slivers. I'll just take the whole bar okay we've talked enough about the future and world collapse in the toxic avenger and all the great things that will happen when North Korea turns us into a nuclear smoldering wasteland. What's on this is a bite I'm going to make a giant bag of prison wine with some ketchup in. I still have I still have you know high hopes for North Korea in 20 years I really really do what do you think it's going to happen there. Asteroid creator. What are you doing they're basically holding the whole world. No I think the leader is going to get replaced and they're going to start you know removing their communist ways like I have high hopes for North Korea. Like when the pendulum swings that far to the left it's it's got a swing the other way got I hope so I hope that it swings back and they just you know enjoy. Some like I feel so bad with people North Korea can't even imagine 70 years in the prison camp Jesus. I mean I mean I I my my future for North Korea is like the future for East German right like sooner or later the leader will get you know removed one way or another. And you know some you'll either come in and they'll start making deals with South Korea and it'll be difficult integrating them back in. But just like East Germany and West Germany this is going to be 10 times harder but it's doable it'll take a general the problem with the East Germany West Germany analogies that China's sitting on the sidelines intent on not letting them reunify North Korea is a real trope of ending up as a crater. A nuclear crater that's too close to Seoul and too close to China so it's in a bad location and I'm not sure why we're talking about it. So so let's move on and everyone should subscribe to the Bitcoin group because subscribe to the world crypto network right below. I've been doing some shows this week on the mad bitcoins channel called today in Bitcoin. Check those out over on the mad Bitcoin channel subscribe gives a thumbs up and a share. We've been on for over an hour and 45 minutes and we have 600 viewers. Thanks so much for watching two day next week for another episode of the Bitcoin group. Hope we're out of time until next time. Bye bye. Bye bye.