Every week on The Bitcoin Group, host Thomas Hunt polls the panel: will the price of bitcoin be higher or lower this time next week? This page extracts that one binary call per panelist per episode from the transcript, grades it against the actual 7-day BTC close, and exposes every quote so you can audit the call yourself.
magic 8 ball, magic eight ball, predictor of predictors, higher this time next week, will the price of bitcoin be higher, etc). The segment runs from ~350 chars before that cue to the next outro marker (thanks for watching, until next time, …).higher or lower phrase, then find each occurrence of a known panelist name in vocative position. The text from one name to the next is that panelist's window. Classify by head-word and substring (higher/up/moon → up, lower/down/dump → down, sideways/flat → abstain, anything ambiguous → unclear). First mention per canonical name wins.NAME-CORRECTIONS.md in tbg-mirrors/ — the well-known Whisper variants for each panelist (e.g. Joshua Shagalla → Josh Scigala, Martin Wishmer → Martin Wismeijer).Only panelists with at least 5 graded calls (i.e. excluding abstains and unclear).
| Panelist | Correct | Wrong | Abstain | Total calls | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Wismeijer →profile | 8 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 61.5% |
| Josh Scigala →profile | 34 | 30 | 7 | 88 | 53.1% |
| Victoria Jones →profile | 17 | 16 | 2 | 43 | 51.5% |
| Dan Eve →profile | 29 | 30 | 1 | 93 | 49.2% |
| Ben Arc →profile | 15 | 19 | 1 | 45 | 44.1% |
These panelists have at least one graded call in the corpus but not enough volume to be ranked on the main leaderboard. Single-call panelists in particular can show misleading 100% or 0% accuracy — the numbers are correct but the sample is too small to be meaningful. Per-guest pages remain available below for full context on every panelist regardless of volume.
| Panelist | Correct | Wrong | Abstain | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Meister →profile | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Gabriel DeVine →profile | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Megan Lords →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jimmy Song →profile | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Will Pangman →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Derrick Freeman →profile | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Theo Goodman →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chris Ellis →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kristoff Atlas →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tone Vays →profile | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffery Jones →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lamar Wilson →profile | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Peter Todd →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Dupre →profile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Click any episode to see the panel’s calls and the verbatim quote behind each one.
A taste of the per-episode pages. Every call links back to the verbatim quote.
BTC $67,627 → $65,774 (-2.74% — went DOWN)
BTC $70,297 → $68,801 (-2.13% — went DOWN)
BTC $76,911 → $70,297 (-8.60% — went DOWN)